In the past, the Fed usually takes 2-3 months to lay the groundwork for a rate cut, including prepping data and public opinion. After all, turning a big ship is hard and slow—making a sudden shift could capsize everyone on board. Allowing extra time is necessary, and during this period, they communicate in a language they all understand. Looking purely at the calendar cycle, starting preparations now and cutting rates once around late September or early October would perfectly align with boosting the midterm elections. Over the past couple of days, whether it’s Waller’s remarks or macro data, everything seems to reinforce the speculation that Waller has already started paving the way for a rate cut.