The "World Cup effect" of labor has receded earlier than expected. The just released US labor market data for June showed significantly lower than expected non farm additions and a slightly lower than expected unemployment rate. Previously, here was https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2071767138109415720? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A discussed this week's focus on non farm payroll data (May's strong non farm payroll is a preparation for businesses to recruit workers in advance for the World Cup), and believed that the possibility of June's non farm payroll exceeding expectations is unlikely because the motivation for businesses to recruit in June is not as strong as in May, but significantly lower than expected, which also exceeds personal expectations and indicates that the "World Cup effect" is rapidly receding, More importantly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the number of non farm new jobs added in April from 179000 to 148000; The number of new non farm employment in May was revised down from 172000 to 129000. The total number of new non-agricultural employment in April and May decreased by 74000. It indeed confirms that the previously discussed labor market is not as strong. Why has the increase in new employment been significantly lower than expected and the unemployment rate also decreased? The two data points are in a fight, and the slight improvement in unemployment rate is mainly due to the decrease in labor force participation rate, which does not mean that recruitment suddenly becomes strong. Simply put, there hasn't been much increase in job opportunities, but the number of people looking for work has also decreased, resulting in a decrease in the unemployment rate (the number of people looking for work has also decreased, and the core issue is an increase in the fatigue of the unemployed population). The increase in non farm payroll is much lower than before, which is a clear signal of a weak labor market. Did we talk about https://(x.com)/qinba frank/status/2069595673113268501 before? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A in the second half of the year, three hedging effects on inflation: 1) The decline in oil prices drives down inflation (mainly depending on how fast the decline can occur); 2) The 'World Cup Effect' of Labor Force Withdraws, Possible Decline in Employment“ 3) The economic fundamentals are still quite good, with the spillover effects of AI infrastructure, driving up electricity prices, software subscriptions, and enterprise cost shifting. The first two points drive inflation downward, while the third point partially supports inflation upward, forming a hedging effect, and ultimately determining the slope of inflation downward. The attitude of Walsh's debut emphasizes inflation (meaning not only looking at the downward trend of inflation, but also the slope of the downward trend, which is equivalent to setting a high threshold for interest rate cuts, that is, to be very close to 2% before considering it). So the probability of not cutting interest rates is still the highest, of course, the weaker the labor market, the faster the downward slope of inflation, which naturally increases the possibility of interest rate cuts. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'