Lao Bai|Jul 02, 2026 12:50
This month of July, the trading calendar is a bit full, and it hasn't been calm since the beginning.
A few minutes ago, the non farm payroll data for June in the United States was released: 57000 new jobs were added, far below the expected 110000, which was directly halved; But the unemployment rate of 4.2% is actually lower than the expected 4.3%, the lowest level since June 2025, typical of a "mixed bag" data
The significant weakening of new employment is a dovish signal, and the market is likely to interpret it as an increase in the probability of interest rate cuts, which is favorable for the stock market and risk assets in the short term; But the decrease in unemployment rate may be more of a result of the decline in labor force participation rate, which does not necessarily mean that the job market has really become stronger. Bullishness and bearishness can only be mystical
There is still an interest rate decision on the way at the end of this month, and these two data basically determine the direction of short-term risk appetite. At present, the dot matrix is more inclined to raise interest rates at least once, rather than cutting interest rates, which is contrary to the widely expected tone of "interest rate cuts within the year" in the market.
At the individual stock/sector level: SPCX has officially been included in the Nasdaq 100, and passive buying by index funds is a tangible inflow of funds; Hynix ADR will be launched in a few days, and the storage leader in the AI hardware narrative will have an additional direct trading opportunity; The overlapping financial reporting season has begun one after another, with several lines simultaneously firing.
At the narrative level, there is no idle time: Stripe, Visa, and other institutions teamed up to launch OpenUSD, which was officially announced yesterday, and I also wrote Etched about the primary market yesterday, which can be considered as reigniting the hype of the "Transformer ASIC vs General GPU" line. Macro narrative and AI hardware narrative are fermenting simultaneously this month.
Overall, July is likely to be a trading month with high information density and volatility - there are macro decisions on non farm payroll and interest rates, individual stocks have adjusted positions in the Nasdaq and financial reports, and both stablecoins and AI hardware are making efforts in terms of narrative.
In this month, it's better to plan your position management and profit structure in advance rather than running around in complete darkness. I just saw @ BITstocks_CN's event this time, where there are many gameplay options such as deposit gifts, blind boxes, and fee deduction vouchers. More importantly, during the financial reporting season, the "real stocks" on BIT can enjoy dividends. If you are also looking for a way to stabilize your position during a volatile month, you can consider participating in a wave!
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