灯塔说|Jul 02, 2026 09:33
July 2nd Encryption Review:
Short term low and bullish mainly, with favorable fundamentals for the recent market trend
Yesterday, the BTC price fell below 58K in the Asian market and pulled back. In the evening, with the help of Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh's speech, it continued to rise and broke through 61K. Today, it held above 60K and Ethereum's 1600 in the white market, waiting for tonight's non farm payroll data release.
Fundamentals:
Prior to last night, the market news was mainly bearish, with institutions lowering their 12-month target prices and ETF funds continuing to experience net outflows. Due to inflation, the market's expectation of a September interest rate hike was as high as 80%, casting a bearish shadow over the market. But last night, Walsh's speech indicated that inflation has decreased, and the market's expectations for non farm employment tonight have decreased. The US stock market has begun to adjust at a high level, and the cryptocurrency market is slowly turning towards the good side.
Last night, I mentioned in my sharing that Walsh's statement lacked data. If tonight's non farm payroll data and next week's CPI data support Walsh's statement, the expectation of a rate hike in September will decrease, which is positive for the cryptocurrency and gold markets.
Today, let's focus on tonight's non farm payroll data. The previous value is 170000 people, with an expected 110000 people. The unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, which is positive for the US dollar and negative for cryptocurrency and gold above 110000 people. Conversely, if it is lower than or equal to 110000 people, it is positive for cryptocurrency and gold.
Technical aspect:
Yesterday, the Asian stock market cleared a new low to obtain liquidity, and rebounded to break through the 61300 pullback. Looking at the big cycle, this rebound is still a repair of the downward trend. The 61.3k area belongs to the first pressure, and the key pressure above 62.3K-63K needs to be paid attention to. Only by standing firm here can we continue to see 65K-66K.
Breaking through 60k in a small cycle forms a small-scale structural reversal, and above 59.8K, the price belongs to a healthy rebound. If it continues to fall below 59.5K, pay attention to the extreme liquidity support around 58.5K.
A healthy pullback was observed above Ethereum synchronization 1588, followed by a low near 1600. If it falls below 1575, it will continue to seek liquidity support in the 1520-1550 range.
The above is only a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice
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