The credibility of US employment data is questioned, and the non farm "life and death line": adding less than 150000, the Federal Reserve is almost certain not to raise interest rates According to BlockBeats, on July 2nd, as the June non farm payroll report is about to be released (due to the Independence Day holiday being moved up to Thursday), there is a clear divergence in the market regarding the authenticity of the current US employment data. From March to May this year, the average monthly job creation in the United States reached 188000, creating the strongest recruitment cycle in three years. But the industry is concerned about the presence of "moisture": one-time factors such as favorable spring weather for outdoor employment and temporary employment during World Cup events have pushed up data, and the employment trend in previous spring and summer often shows a "surge and fall". Analysis indicates that the number of new jobs added in June needs to reach or exceed Wall Street's consensus expectation of 110000 in order to confirm the sustainability of the employment recovery. If the number of people significantly exceeds expectations by 150000 or more, the Federal Reserve may seriously consider raising interest rates at this month's meeting; If it falls below this threshold, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to keep interest rates unchanged. Other key observation points include: the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, unchanged for the fourth consecutive month and still at a historical low; ·The recruitment industry is gradually diversifying, breaking away from the previous situation of the medical industry being the only one standing out; ·The year-on-year salary growth rate is expected to remain at around 3.5%, and there is no significant inflationary pressure yet. Analysts believe that although the current labor market is recovering, the reliability and sustainability of the data still need to be further verified by the non farm payroll in June. [Original link]