Market Update BTC: Dropped to $57,800, down over 50% from its all-time high of $126,000, hitting a new low since October 2024. ETH: Consolidating around the $1,600 low. SOL: Rare 10-month losing streak. Market Sentiment: Fear Index at 17 (Extreme Fear) Two major headwinds: 1. Significant outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs. Since May 1, there have only been 9 days of net inflows, with relatively small amounts (daily inflows under $140M). In the last 4 days of May, daily outflows exceeded $600M, with institutions and retail investors reducing holdings via ETFs, amplifying spot selling pressure. 2. Fed rate cut expectations dashed. The market now estimates a 77.8% probability of no action this year, with only a 19.6% chance of a rate cut. Bottom Prediction Historical reference: 2018 bear market saw a 77% pullback, 2022 saw a 73% pullback. Assuming a 60% pullback from this cycle’s $116,600 high, the bottom could be around $46,000.