Tonight's non-farm payroll data might be the most important set of data this week. The market has been expecting a rate hike, but today's ADP report came in below expectations. At the ECB Sintra Forum, Waller also mentioned that inflation risks have decreased compared to before. While he didn’t signal a rate cut, his tone was noticeably more dovish than before. Although ADP doesn’t represent non-farm payrolls, it at least indicates that the job market isn’t as strong as it was in previous months, which has started to ease rate hike expectations. If tonight’s non-farm payroll data also comes in below expectations, the likelihood of a September rate hike will probably cool further. This could bring a wave of sentiment recovery for gold, U.S. stocks, and the crypto market. However, if the data exceeds expectations again, the market will likely return to pricing in higher interest rates for a longer period. So tonight’s non-farm payroll data will determine whether the U.S. economy starts to hit the brakes. Once employment cools down, the Fed’s future policy expectations will shift accordingly.