The circulating loss ratio can be used to compare the 'pain level' of investors during each bear market, essentially measuring the extreme range of market sentiment in a quantified way. Due to factors like low-cost coins being locked in, higher bear market bottoms, and a more mature holder structure, the circulating loss ratio at each bear market bottom has been decreasing compared to the previous cycle. For example, the peak in 2015 was 64%, in 2019 it was 60%, and in 2022 it was 55%. On June 30, when BTC dropped to $58000, this ratio rose to 54%. This is the highest value seen so far in this cycle. If the decreasing trend of the past 10 years continues, then 54% is already very close to the peak limit of the previous cycle, suggesting that $58k is already near the bottom. But recently, I’ve been pondering a question: In this bull market cycle, a large portion of ancient low-cost coins was moved, and major institutions bought in at high levels, with many of these holdings still heavily accumulated. This has caused the overall cost basis of LTH (Long-Term Holders) to shift upward. These coins are now in unrealized losses. If they remain unmoved, the base of loss-making coins grows larger. Could this break the historical trend, meaning the circulating loss ratio in this bear market bottom might exceed the previous peak of 55%? I think it’s possible. But my personal judgment is that even if it exceeds, it won’t be by much—probably somewhere between 55-60%.