ETF institutions are all withdrawing, who pushed up the price after taking orders at 58000-60000 yuan? How to translate Brothers and sisters, in June, Bitcoin ETFs flowed out more than $4 billion, and the BlackRock family ran away more than $3 billion. Institutions are systematically withdrawing, but prices have repeatedly gained support in the range of 58000-60000 yuan, and even rebounded to over 61000 yuan at one point. ETF is selling, who is buying? The answer is clear: Whales and long-term holders are taking over the market, and the two forces are changing hands. 1. 4 billion outflow is true, but the outflow rate has slowed down In June, the net outflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs was about $4.06 billion, setting a record for the largest monthly outflow since its listing in January 2024 and breaking the previous high of $3.56 billion in February 2025. But pay attention to one detail: the outflow rate is slowing down significantly. From mid May to early June, ETFs experienced 13 consecutive days of outflows, evaporating $4.4 billion. But thereafter, the weekly outflow decreased from $1.72 billion to approximately $226 million in the most recent week, a decrease of 87%. BlackRock IBIT indeed had the highest outflow - $1.3 billion in the week of June 22-26, accounting for nearly 73% of the industry's total outflow. But after entering July, the outflow rate slowed down significantly, and even showed signs of daily inflow. Conclusion: It is a fact that ETFs are withdrawing, but the most intense wave has already passed. 2. Giant Whales Counter the Trend and Attract Funds in the 58000-60000 Range This is the core of the answer. At the peak of ETF outflows, Giant Whale happened to enter an increase in holdings mode. Since June 1st, whale groups holding 10 to 10000 BTC have cumulatively increased their holdings by approximately 270000 BTC (about $20 billion), the largest monthly increase in any holder category since 2013. Multiple on chain monitoring data shows that in late June, Giant Whale continued to withdraw coins from the trading platform (1) On June 11th, a certain whale address withdrew 2341 BTC worth approximately $145 million from OKX; (2) In late June, multiple new addresses extracted over 3000 BTC from custodians such as BitGo; (3) A wallet holding 10 to 10000 BTC has cumulatively increased its holdings by over 30000 BTC, approximately $2 billion, within seven days. The timing is very precise: the increase in holdings by Giant Whale coincides with the peak outflow of ETFs. ETFs are selling, while whales are buying - this is not a coincidence, it's a turnover. 3. Long term holders are locked in, with 79% of supply remaining unchanged Another key buying force is long-term holders. Long term holders currently control approximately 16.1 million BTC (approximately 79% of the circulating supply), reaching a historic high. The previous record was 74.5% of the bottom region in 2022-2023. The reactivation amount of old coins is only 218421, the lowest since 2012. Compared to the same period in 2024, 1.18 million BTC have been reactivated, and believers have remained largely inactive. This means that even if the price drops to 58000, the most steadfast holders will not sell. This is not the common panic surrender at the bottom of a bear market. 4. 58000 is the bottom line for the cost of 'smart money' The average cost base for long-term holders is approximately $48400. But around 58000 is another important line of defense - this is the range where whales and accumulations concentrated their fundraising in June, and also the area where market makers heavily placed orders on their order books. According to the order book data, from June 30th to July 1st, there were a large number of buy orders in the range of 58000-60000, with the depth of buy orders significantly exceeding that of sell orders. Based on the on chain signals of the increase in holdings by the giant whale, it is highly likely that the funding entities that are buying are institutions and the giant whale laying out at a low level. 5. The ultimate direction of long short game Short term selling pressure dominates (ETF outflow), but medium-term buying is accumulating (Whale+LTH). Two forces are fiercely changing hands between 58000-61000. Whoever runs out of ammunition and supplies first, the direction will come out. Let 58000 produce the results first, let the switch be completed first, and then decide the direction. Bitcoin BTC ETF Whale 3D Integrated Trading Analysis