I wrote 3 tweets about bottoming signals—one about timing the bottom, one about the bottom range (more updates to come), but none of them are timing signals. For more precise positioning or to understand short-term price fluctuations, we need to look at more granular data. This includes capital flows, spot CVD, futures/options, etc. For example, what we especially need to pay attention to right now is: the current perpetual contract OI is still growing rapidly! In just a few days, it has surged from 470k to over 500k, even surpassing the OI levels from early May when BTC was still above $80k. Meanwhile, the funding fee paid by longs to shorts per hour has risen from a 7-day average of $79k to $103k. This indicates that during the drop, most of the inflow is from newly opened leveraged longs catching falling knives. Behaviorally, the more the price drops, the more convinced this group becomes that this is the bottom, and they’re expressing this conviction with increasingly expensive leverage. Comparing now to May: the same OI, but at a lower price, means the average leverage multiple of these longs has passively increased, bringing their maintenance margin closer to the liquidation line. This is a textbook liquidation fuel setup! Longs are actively increasing leverage, stacking higher and higher, but eventually, it has to be paid back. The payback can happen either through voluntary deleveraging or via a sharp downward liquidation cascade. When this orange bar collapses significantly within a few hours and funding flips deeply negative—essentially flushing this group out in one go—that’s pretty much a timing signal.