I'm tired of blowing, and I can talk about it pretty much, This article only focuses on one thing: comparing the slaughter volume, pig inventory, and sow inventory with pig prices, These three data correspond to the current, recent, and future supply of live pigs respectively. The demand side is relatively fixed, and the main factor affecting prices is the supply side, First of all, let me explain that the direct slaughter volume data has not been available since the second quarter of 2025, and the rest are all year-on-year data. When I convert it back using year-on-year, there is a certain degree of error, Directly looking at Figure (a): With an increase in slaughter and a decrease in price, the Spearman correlation coefficient shows a strong inverse correlation, which is logically consistent, 1. There is also a strong correlation between inventory and pig prices, reaching a peak after a shift of 5 months, and the anti correlation feature is very obvious, The result of breeding sows is similar, also at 5 months, 3. The slaughter quantity and price are reflected in the current period, so dig deeper into the slaughter data, Looking at the raw data by month, the lowest point is usually in February, which is likely due to the Spring Festival effect: the number of days slaughter companies start production decreases and transactions are interrupted. The slaughter volume in February is prone to an annual low point, which may not necessarily represent the bottom of the real production capacity cycle, After trend removal and spectrum analysis, two distinct periods were found: around 12.4 months and around 6.2 months, which are the annual and semi annual periods, If we only consider the superposition of these two cycles, August is usually the annual slaughter low, The seasonal characteristics of slaughter are clear, driven by weather, festivals, inventory, and reproductive capacity, which can also have an impact on slaughter, Let's take a look at the inventory first. This part may not be reliable. I used linear interpolation to supplement the inventory data - inventory is quarterly data, and interpolation can cause statistical problems, From the perspective of correlation, the point at which inventory has the strongest impact on slaughter volume is after 3 months, which means that the current inventory trend roughly corresponds to the slaughter trend after 3 months, The impact of breeding sows on slaughter is later, and the correlation shifts by 4 months before reaching its peak, From a statistical perspective, there is only one month left for the slaughter peak platform period. Considering the quarterly error, extending the platform to two months, I believe that the slaughter end will peak in June and then enter a downward channel. This supports the upward trend of pig prices starting from July, Looking at the direct relationship between inventory and price, inventory has been declining for roughly two quarters, with a five month shift in correlation reaching its peak. The trend is about to be reflected in pig prices, which support the upward trend of pig prices starting from June, Due to the change in PSY, the inventory of sows seems to have expired. The inventory has been continuously declining for a long time, and the key is still to look at inventory and slaughter. It can only be said that the breeding capacity has reached a state where it can support pig prices to enter an upward channel at any time, Simply put, regulation can solve the problem, and the overall situation is completely controllable, And finally, congratulations to the brothers who made a bargain before