Today's stock market summary: Long positions rushing to run, disappearing selling pressure, June closing day of the US stock market The pressure of pension sales has been digested in advance, but the market logic has not changed Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been reminding in recent days that there will be a concentrated sell-off of $30 billion in pension funds on June 29-30. On Tuesday, the market did not fall but instead rose. To put it simply, the early rush of bullish funds has eaten up a portion of the July market, while pension funds and short positions have become the fuel for this wave of rise. But this does not mean that there will be no market trend in July. Passive funds and CTA quantitative mechanical allocation will still add positions to stocks according to rules in the second half of the year, and the buying orders that should come will not disappear due to early rush. Chip stocks are rising well, but the breadth of the overall market is average The S&P 500 index rose by 0.78% on that day, but only a little over 40% of the constituent stocks actually closed higher. The rise was almost entirely supported by chip stocks such as Intel, MRVL, and AMD. Since the beginning of this year, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has surged by 94%, while the S&P has only risen by single digits. Strong people are always strong, and funds will still be willing to chase chip stocks at appropriate prices. At the sector level, there is also a clear shift in funds: defense sectors such as real estate, essential consumption, utilities, and finance, which only returned a few weeks ago, have been withdrawn in the past two days, and funds have surged back into technology and industry. Apple, Google, Tesla and other heavyweight stocks also strengthened on the same day. S&P received 7498 The S&P 500 ultimately closed at 7498 points, just one step away from the integer threshold of 7500. From the intraday option data, the exercise price of 7500 has been attracting a large amount of net buying funds since early trading, coupled with the presence of positive gamma exposure. This price actually has a "magnetic attraction" effect, pulling the price upwards all the way. On the daily chart, the market has successfully broken through the blank zone between the 50 day moving average and the 10 day and 20 day moving averages, with clear bullish momentum. However, it is currently constrained by a downward trend line extending from the high point of 7600, which is suppressing prices at around 7520. There is a certain level of option structure support and resistance both in the short term. Tomorrow's call wall is at 7540 and put wall is at 7475. Technically speaking, bulls maintain stable control over the market QQ stepping back 727-730 is a good way to connect multiple positions, SPY stepping back 740-742 After the early rebound, the Nasdaq has completely filled the previous gap and stood above the key moving average resistance level. The original resistance level has now turned into support, which is a bullish signal. From the perspective of gamma exposure structure, after passing the 750 level, the exposure begins to significantly weaken, and the area around 740 is a relatively concentrated gamma accumulation zone. If there is a healthy pullback in the short term, the 730 area will be a relatively solid support. If you step back into the 727-730 range, you can consider buying on dips. AMD surged 7.7% in a single day, setting a new historical high (INTC is also doing well) AMD closed at $580.82 that day, a significant increase of 7.7%, breaking through the previous weeks' sideways consolidation range of $500-525 and setting a new historical high. From the perspective of option holdings, 600 points is currently the largest positive gamma exposure and trading volume aggregation area, as well as the most direct short-term target level. Further long option layouts have even piled up to 700 and 800 points. Overall, the upward trend of the AI infrastructure industry chain is still very stable, and every time it crosses the main moving average such as EMA 20, it will attract capital rush buying, and there is currently no sign of any deterioration. It is expected that after breaking through 600 points, it will likely digest at a high level for 1-2 weeks, wait for the moving average to catch up, and then continue to surge. Morgan Stanley lowers oil prices Morgan Stanley mentioned that due to the faster than expected recovery of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with abundant domestic supply in the United States and weak overseas demand, the market is facing the risk of oversupply. Therefore, the Brent crude oil forecast for the third quarter of 2026 has been significantly reduced by $15 to $75 per barrel. The long-term decline in oil prices itself is a factor in reducing inflation and has a positive impact on the overall stock market. The overall market valuation is still not expensive, but the positions are already a bit crowded Looking at the large, medium, and small cap markets together, the overall market is currently undervalued by about 8.1%. Even though the S&P is only about 3% away from its historical high, supported by sustained profit growth, the fundamentals are still attractive and a good buying point in the long run. Once S&P breaks through 7530, the next target will be 7600, followed by 7700. Once the Nasdaq 100 can recover and stabilize above 30500 points, it is expected to directly open up a new round of upward space, with a target of 32000. In terms of position sentiment, Goldman Sachs' indicators have officially entered the extremely crowded red zone, but historically, once this state is formed, it can often last for several months. Therefore, any pullback triggered by technology or sentiment in the short term is likely to be quickly taken away by bulls. Profit growth is the strongest confidence in this round of market trend In the first quarter of 2026, the profit growth rate of the S&P 500 reached 27%. Even excluding one-time gains from external investments such as investing in OpenAI and Anthropic by Amazon, Google, and Nvidia, the growth rate under normal circumstances is still as high as 17%, far exceeding the market's original expectation of 13%. The profit expectation for the next quarter has also been given at 22%. This is also why even if there is a short-term technical correction, it is difficult to evolve into a truly systematic collapse. JPMorgan Chase's new Q1 Collar structure revealed, clearly leaning towards an offensive approach The collar option settings for the third quarter (expiring on September 30th) are: sell call 7890, buy put protection 7090, and sell put 5990. Compared to the previous quarter's 6865/6180/5210, the three exercise prices have all increased significantly overall. Selling bullish at 7890 indicates that institutions do not believe that the third quarter will peak soon, but rather feel that the cost-effectiveness of continuing to chase after 7900 is decreasing; The buy protection is set at 7090, which is approximately 10% below the current level. This is more like locking in the profits already earned this year, rather than really worrying about entering a bear market; Selling bearish also mentioned 5990, indicating that the overall risk budget of the institution is more abundant than the previous quarter. Placing protection at around 10% below is actually quite in line with the current market trend. The factors that may trigger a pullback at the moment are financial reports falling short of expectations, interest rates rising again, AI capital expenditure slowing down, quarterly fund rebalancing, CTA deleveraging, etc. These usually correspond to technical adjustments of 8% to 12%. The 7800 adjustment of 10% only reached 7000 points. There has already been a 10% pullback this year, and another pullback will not exceed 10%. If there is any, it is highly likely to happen in August, September, or October. From historical experience, the JPM Collar reflects more on the quarterly Gamma structure, conveying information about the probability of the next quarter or a fluctuating upward pattern, and will not immediately turn short. Overall, it can be understood as being bullish but placing more emphasis on risk control, which is significantly more relaxed compared to the previous quarter. July 1st marks the beginning of the second half of the year The global mutual funds, 401K new payment quotas, and passive allocation of funds through ETFs in the new quarter will usher in a wave of mechanical concentrated buying, and the overall market is likely to continue to rise along with this inertia. The only short-term variable is that the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh will speak at the European Central Bank forum tomorrow, but considering the upcoming National Day weekend, the market generally believes that he is unlikely to make particularly hawkish remarks at this point. VIX fell 6.8% on the same day. The intraday trend is completely suppressed by bears, and if it continues to converge downwards in the future, it may evolve into a continued signal of short selling in the US stock market during the summer. How do we look ahead Start with a wave in July, and be cautious of high volatility in August and September (although there are still many opportunities for individual stock financial reports during this period, and the sector will continue to rotate during the volatility period) Judging from the passive inflow of funds at the beginning of the new fiscal year, the overall market is likely to rise at the beginning of the month, and the S&P has the opportunity to break through the previous high of 7600 or even challenge 7800 points. But after entering the traditional off-season from July to September, the upward trend may gradually dull and turn into a high level with repeated fluctuations. The overall idea is still not to short easily, to see the pullback as an opportunity to buy low, to sell high and buy low. High can see JP Morgan's maximum of 7890, and low can see his bearish protection of 7090. These two positions are not necessarily reached, and it depends on the market situation.