BTC Long and Short Term Holder Cost Reversal Signal: Simple Data Calculation When it comes to the bottom fishing strategy of Deep Bear, besides the "Four Big Deep Bear Models" that I usually share, In fact, there is another signal that is also very noteworthy, That is to say, 'short-term holding costs are lower than long-term holding costs.'. In this article, I will specifically focus on this topic, based on existing data, Take everyone on a simple data deduction ： // The concept of indicators in the attached figure is as follows: Blue line（ ）= STH-RP (Short Term Holder Average Cost) Green Line（ ）= LTH-RP (Long Term Holder Average Cost) Signal=STH-RP<LTH-RP Berg's old friends all know: ➡️ Due to frequent trading by short-term holders, Gu STH-RP is more sensitive to price changes ➡️ Long term holders are more like "smart money" with obvious cost advantages Resonance Coming: Latest Cost Data Update for BTC Long Term Holders https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2069600684824264739 Most of the time, LTH-RP should theoretically be lower than STH-RP; If there is a strange phenomenon of 'STH-RP<LTH-RP', This indicates that the market price has not only fallen below the holding cost of long-term holders, And also stayed under LTH-RP for a period of time, Only then can STH-RP gradually decrease and ultimately be lower than LTH-RP. That's right, if the market situation were to be so bleak, it could only happen at the bottom of a bear market. As shown in the attached figure: Since the birth of BTC, every time a signal appears (STH-RP<LTH-RP), Without exception, they all correspond to the bear market bottom area of BTC. // Returning to the present, based on the existing data, we can derive the following deduction: ➡️ Currently STH-RP=70558 ➡️ Currently LTH-RP=49495 ➡️ The difference between the two is 70558-49495=21063 Furthermore, if we start calculating from early October last year: ➡️ Since October 1st last year, a total of 273 days have passed ➡️ STH-RP has been declining since 112233, with an average rate of decrease of 153 yuan/day ➡️ LTH-RP has been rising since 36825, with an average rate of increase of 46 yuan/day Finally, we can draw the following conclusion: ➡️ The two are approaching at an average daily rate of (153+46)=199 yuan/day ➡️ After 21063/199=106 days, both may trigger the signal again Of course, the above data is only a rough estimate, and the actual situation cannot be so simple, But at least the above conclusions can provide some research directions. // Finally, if you were to ask for my own opinion: I actually lean towards' hitting the bottom within 106 days and falling into the deep bear valuation bargain zone '. The main reason lies in: Currently, there are four categories: Cointime Price, Realized Price, LTH-RP, and Model Blue Line, In fact, a very perfect bottom resonance has already been formed, As for where the resonance interval is, interested friends can refer to the following quote If the time is delayed for too long, it may actually cause the resonance formation area to begin to diverge, At that time, although there is a high probability of maintaining resonance, the interval formed by resonance will be amplified, For a cyclical trader like me, it actually requires more effort in operation. In summary, I actually prefer BTC to 'fall into the deep bear valuation zone as soon as possible', As for the bottom fishing signal of 'STH-RP<LTH-RP', it seems to me to have auxiliary properties, Alternatively, it can be described as' something that can be encountered but not sought after '. But regardless, it cannot be denied that: We are indeed in the late stage of a bear market, and the multi armed Le Minh is really not far away The above is today's content, hoping to be helpful to everyone // Related reading resources The Cambrian Stage of the Market: The Second Periodic Bottom Signal Appears https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2071773101898223809 New low-level gravity zone: classic Trendline Liq reappears https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2071409778182762540 Another perspective on peering into the bottom of the cycle: 'Desperate moments with losses at the forefront' https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2064526581041975350 The first glimmer of hope: PSIP bear market bottom signal begins to emerge https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2063800180227588374