蓝狐|7月 01, 2026 01:19
Is this the end of the stablecoin war? can't.
OUSD looks very powerful, after all, it is not a single company working alone, but a "shared infrastructure" stablecoin developed by over 140 large companies (Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock, Coinbase, Stripe, Shopify, Google, etc.) together.
Will it win the stablecoin battle?
My personal opinion is:
I won't completely 'win' the stablecoin battle, but I can grab a piece of the cake.
In the field of stablecoins, it is highly likely to become one of the top five important players, with its main scenarios in enterprise payments and institutional adoption, but the probability of completely dominating the market is not high.
It can indeed steal a considerable piece of cake, mainly for the following reasons:
One is the network effect, after all, 140+giants are making efforts, directly bringing payment channels, merchants, and banking networks. Enterprises can redeem at zero cost without limit+share the reserve income (most of the US debt interest returns to partners), which is very attractive to traditional financial and Internet companies.
Secondly, precise positioning. The main scenario is not DeFi, but the large-scale payment, settlement, cross-border and other scenarios of the "Internet economy". In these scenarios, the costs and benefits of USDT/USDC are not necessarily aligned with the players, and OUSD has the opportunity to cut in.
Thirdly, clear regulation is conducive to institutions playing together. At present, institutions have a strong willingness to enter, and the "shared infrastructure" model has the opportunity to quickly expand.
At the same time, it will not dominate the market.
Why do you say that?
Firstly, USDT has strong liquidity, and whether it is trading volume, depth on CEX, or adoption in emerging markets, it is the best experience for a certain period of time.
Secondly, USDC initially took a compliant approach with good transparency and will also be adopted by institutions and regulators. After the launch of OUSD, Circle will definitely face pressure (reflected in the price), although it is a fact that the space is squeezed by OUSD, USDC will not be easily replaced.
Overall evaluation:
OUSD may grab a big piece of the cake in enterprise payments/remittances/merchants/RWA and drive the overall growth of stablecoin market share, but this is not the end of USDC/USDT, as each will eventually have its own usage scenarios.
For example, USDT still has opportunities in cryptocurrency trading/speculation/DeFi/emerging markets, USDC also has opportunities in institutional/compliance/DeFi, and OUSD has greater development opportunities in enterprise scenarios (such as using stablecoins for large-scale payments, merchant settlements, cross-border transfers, etc.).
It can be expected that more stablecoins will be launched in the future.
Finally, is there still a chance for decentralized stablecoins?
Yes, but for a long time, it was mainly limited to DeFi and permissionless scenarios, mainly in the field of encryption. It is difficult to defeat stablecoins supported by fiat currencies in mainstream payments and large-scale adoption.
The success of a truly decentralized stablecoin will only have a chance after BTC/ETH has a value of at least tens of trillions of dollars, which requires a long period of evolution.
There is also a mutation situation that depends on the speed and scale of AI+crypto fusion. If the speed is fast and the scale is large, the development of decentralized stablecoins may also experience a singularity moment.
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