[Traders Increase Short Positions in Federal Funds Rate Futures, Risky Bet on July Rate Hike] According to a report by Jinse Finance, on July 1, traders in the federal funds rate market are ramping up bets that the Federal Reserve could begin raising interest rates as early as July. This previously unimaginable move could be disrupted by a series of economic data. The probability of a rate hike at next month's policy meeting remains relatively low, with interest rate swaps currently pricing in about 9 basis points of increase, equivalent to a roughly 36% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. Nevertheless, this probability has risen significantly; prior to new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh shifting focus to price stability, the probability was nearly zero. Since the June 17 policy meeting, the open interest in August federal funds rate futures—representing the scale of new positions held by investors—has risen rapidly. The rapid accumulation of new positions is generally skewed toward sellers, indicating that traders are shorting the contract. If the probability of a rate hike continues to rise, such positions will benefit.