看不懂的SOL|Jun 30, 2026 12:55
1/Recently, the story of ByteDance employees speculating on financial freedom in US stocks is very popular. Just graduated in 22 years, turned $20000 into over 2 million in a week, and finally earned $30 million before leaving. It sounds like a myth.
But I advise you not to get too excited for now. This kind of story can become popular, essentially like lottery winning news - it is the ultimate case of survivorship bias.
What you see is the one who makes money, but you haven't seen thousands of people who lose money in the same way.
He relies on short-term options himself, which are close to expiration, have high volatility, and strong game theory. This strategy is not investment, it's betting. One black swan can reset to zero.
He also said himself: it's not about finding Alpha, but leveraging to earn Beta. Not relying on research to make money, relying on betting on the right direction and leveraging to amplify.
This sentence is extremely dangerous for ordinary people. You don't have his information source, execution ability, risk tolerance, and the confidence that losing $20000 won't affect your life.
Where are the opportunities for ordinary people in the US stock market?
Not short-term options, not leveraged beta trading, but admitting to being ordinary and buying the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, holding them for the long term.
Over the past two decades, the Nasdaq has been annualized by 12% -15%, while the S&P has been annualized by 10%. What does this mean?
This means you don't need to double in a week, just make monthly investments, and time will automatically help you accumulate most of your wealth.
7/He mentioned that the direction with strong certainty in the next one to two years is AI, look at 13F. I agree with this.
But I don't agree with ordinary people buying AI stocks. The winner of AI could be Nvidia, or it could be a company you don't know yet. Maina refers to 100, which is equivalent to buying the strongest company in the AI industry chain.
You can watch on August 13th, but don't blindly copy homework. Buffett's 13F has a long holding period and a large amount of funds, and retail investors often buy halfway up the mountain. There is still a 45 day delay in quarterly data, and what you see is already in the past tense.
So my point of view is simple: treat this story as a topic of conversation after dinner, but don't take it as your own path.
Ordinary people who want to truly make money in the US stock market do not rely on luck doubling in a week, but on the discipline of "admitting mediocrity+respecting rules+holding for the long term".
The story of 10/Byte employees tells us that there are indeed opportunities in the US stock market, but the opportunities are not in option leverage, but in assets that may seem boring but can cross cycles.
For ordinary people, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are the most worthwhile "betas" to bet on.
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