灯塔说
灯塔说|Jun 30, 2026 06:08
BTC June 30th Crypto Review: BTC oscillates at low levels and breaks through, with support from low and long funds Fundamentals: Since June, the market's focus has remained on the continuous outflow of ETFs, the cooling of institutional sentiment, the pressure on Strategy/MSTR narratives, and the suppression of risk assets by geopolitical and interest rate expectations. After 13 trading days and a cumulative outflow of approximately $4.4 billion, the spot BTC ETF only experienced a small net inflow; Spot ETH ETF has also ended 17 days of outflows, but the repair efforts are not strong On the other hand, traditional finance continues to move closer to stablecoin infrastructure, such as BNY Mellon's preparation to support Circle USDC custody, transfer, minting, and destruction, which is beneficial for the institutionalization of stablecoins. As long as the non farm payroll data on Thursday is not significantly stronger than expected, it is a positive opportunity for the market to rebound. Mid to long term perspective on the market: Since BTC fell to 58K and recovered, the market has been fluctuating at a low level around 59K-60K in recent days, without forming an effective continuation of the decline or rebounding to break through key pressure levels. This low-level clearing game stage is also a betting stage. However, there is no extreme panic in the market in the short term, and the negative impact of fundamentals has temporarily reduced. This Thursday's non farm day in July will continue to drive the impact of interest rate hikes, but at most it will repeat the market's already adapted expectation of interest rate hikes. However, once the non farm data is conducive to delaying the interest rate hike month, the probability of a strong rebound in the market will be higher. Overall, from the current perspective, after a slight downward sweep, there is a greater opportunity for short selling at the low long position than at the low position. Today's market analysis: Pay attention to the opportunities for taking long positions in two ranges: 58800-59100 and 58000-58300. After breaking through and stabilizing at 60.6K, there is a probability of continued rebound, but the important turning point for reversal is at 62.5K. Ethereum is slightly stronger than BTC, and its rebound takes priority over BTC. Pay attention to the 1550-1560 low sweep before rebounding, and stabilize at 1610 before making a breakthrough to continue. The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice
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