qinbafrank|Jun 30, 2026 01:27
The month-end selling pressure is fading, and the market's ability to absorb is growing. Last night's market opened with a sharp drop, then rebounded strongly, forming a deep V-shaped reversal during the session. You can see that the selling pressure at the open was heavy, but the market managed to buy back, showing strong support.
From an industry perspective:
1) Samsung and SK Hynix's ten-year capital expenditure plans have sparked enthusiasm for semiconductor equipment, materials, and testing sectors;
2) Google has started implementing usage restrictions based on compute power quotas for Gemini applications due to a doubling in Gemini API request volume. Google is unable to supply Meta with the full compute power quota needed for its Gemini model. This shows that compute power shortages remain a key issue. Honestly, this news feels underestimated.
These two points indicate that the current industry fundamentals are still in a strong position.
The key focus this week is on two events:
1) Wednesday's speech by Waller at the ECB Forum
Waller is expected to further elaborate on his ideas and perspectives, allowing the market to recalibrate;
2) More importantly, the June non-farm unemployment data
May's non-farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, strengthening market expectations for rate hikes (especially since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum hadn't been signed at the time), which led to the deleveraging wave in early June. This week's labor data is therefore even more critical.
From a personal perspective, the likelihood of June's non-farm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations is low. The core reason for May's surprise was offline retail and service industries hiring early to prepare for the influx of World Cup visitors. In June, businesses probably won't have the same hiring motivation as in May, especially since new hires still require training.
Overall, it's still the strategy we discussed last Friday: "buy the dip." The focus for buying the dip is naturally on those strong-performing sectors.
This post is sponsored by @bitget_zh, "Bitget Buy U.S. Stocks: Instant entry, seamless trading
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