Hupzy (Spot On Chain)|6ๆ 29, 2026 19:18
โ ๏ธ US new-home supply hit ๐ญ๐ฌ.๐ฏ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต๐ in May โ the highest since February 2009. Historically, ๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ณ ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฒ๐ this indicator surged to current levels, the US economy was already in recession.
๐๐๐ฝ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ: Housing is a leading indicator. Builders can't clear inventory, which pressures construction employment and supply chains โ feeding into broader slowdown. For crypto traders, two transmission channels matter: recessionary data increases pressure on the Fed to cut (risk-asset positive), but if a recession materializes, BTC and risk assets tend to sell off hard before any rate-cut relief arrives.
The 6-of-7 recession hit rate at this level is not noise. Watch whether this spills into existing-home sales and unemployment claims โ confirmation would shift the macro regime from soft-landing to recession risk, short-term bearish for BTC despite eventual dovish pivot potential.
source: KobeissiLetter
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