Many people are still asking, is BTC 59000 the bottom??? My answer is very clear: at least from the current weekly structure, I cannot see the evidence that has already formed at the bottom. After reaching a peak of $120000, BTC has completed a complete bear market structure of high point downward movement, weakened rebound, and support loss. The price has never fallen for such a long time without reason, and it will not easily reverse at a position where everyone is waiting to buy the bottom. The most alarming thing now is not that it has fallen to 59000, but that a large number of bullish hopes have gathered around 59000. There is a cruel law in the market: When the vast majority of people believe that a certain position is a support, it often becomes a liquidity harvesting zone. From the perspective of the market, prices continue to sideways near key support, volatility continues to shrink, and trading volume continues to decline. Many people understand this as stabilization, but in trend markets, it often means that the carrying capacity is being gradually consumed. Looking at the macro environment again. The global economy is still in the lagging impact stage of high interest rate cycles, and liquidity has not truly returned. The reason why the Nasdaq can still maintain a high level is essentially based on the valuation premium supported by a few heavyweight stocks, rather than a comprehensive recovery in risk appetite. BTC, as the most volatile asset among global risk assets, usually does not wait until an economic recession is confirmed before falling, but instead pre values future risks. In other words, if the US stock market only starts to adjust, BTC is likely to have not completed this round of clearing yet. In history, after each four-year cycle reaches its peak, the following year is often the most intense stage of deleveraging. Whether it is 2014, 2018, or 2022, the real bottom appears after the market is completely hopeless. Based on the historical drawdown and weekly liquidity structure, 38000-42000 is still the macro value zone that I believe is most worth paying attention to. That is not only the area of large-scale trading before the start of the previous bull market, but also the most likely location for a large amount of long-term funds to reprice. As for July, I believe it is likely to become the most critical turning point for this round of market trends. If 59000 falls, the accumulated stop loss and leverage positions below will be triggered in a concentrated manner, and the market may enter a new round of accelerated decline. The true bottom does not arise from hope, but from panic, liquidation, and lack of attention. In terms of time, I pay more attention to the fourth quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027, and in terms of price, I pay more attention to the range of 38000 to 42000. Before that, I preferred to view every rebound as a pullback in a bear market rather than the beginning of a new bull market.