The Japanese yen has plummeted to a 40 year low, and the real nervousness lies with those holding BTC. Just saw the Japanese yen fall to a 40 year low, this is a signal! The US Japan exchange rate broke through its previous high of 161.95, surpassing the highest level since December 1986. Actually, the exchange rate figures themselves are not the focus. The key point is that the Japanese yen is the cheapest financing currency in the world. For decades, market traders have borrowed yen to exchange for dollars to buy anything that can rise - US stocks, gold BTC。 This arbitrage structure has expanded to the point where no one can accurately measure its size. Now that the Bank of Japan is raising interest rates while the Japanese yen is depreciating, it shows that the market simply does not believe that the Bank of Japan can catch up with the pace of the Federal Reserve. But the Japanese bank will not endure forever. Once it intervenes verbally or raises interest rates in July beyond expectations, all positions borrowed in yen must be reversed - selling assets and repaying yen. It has already been demonstrated once in August 2024. Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates, causing BTC to plummet from 60K to 49K, resulting in a $1.1 billion sell-off in 24 hours and a $600 billion evaporation in the cryptocurrency market. That's just a small increase. And today's environment is even more fragile than before: BTC ETFs have had a net outflow of 4 billion for six consecutive weeks, and liquidity has already dried up. If the Bank of Japan were to take action at this critical moment, it would be a combination of ETF pumping and cargo windbreak, with both gates simultaneously releasing water. The role of gold in this scenario is not bad. In past experiences, during the first few hours of yen intervention, gold would be sold indiscriminately like all assets. However, after that wave of selling, the safe haven attribute of gold would be activated, pulling the price back. The rhythm of "falling first and then rising" has been repeatedly verified in every major fluctuation of the Japanese yen in the past two years. So now we need to pay attention to the dynamics of the Bank of Japan. If it doesn't make a sound for a day, the carry trade will have an extra day of life. Once it opens, the Japanese yen jumps up → risk assets are concentrated and sold off → BTC leads the decline → BTC further drags down the risk appetite of the entire cryptocurrency market → gold is briefly drained before rebounding. This is a potential macro factor that can be monitored using AI to monitor the dynamics of Japanese silver BTC