Pai 🌲|Jun 29, 2026 14:24
QQ shakes on 707, SPY+0.6% on 733. But the semiconductor was hit, SMH fell 1.7%, SOXX fell 2.1%. NVDA is also declining, at -0.8%.
This is not a panic selling, but more like funds slowly withdrawing from the crowded semiconductor narrative. VIX is shaking at 18, no one is panicking. DXY is around 101, and there is no pressure from the US dollar.
Focus on one point this week: QQ continues to rise while SOXX continues to fall. How long can this divergence last. The last similar scene was in September last year, when the market was dragged down by semiconductors. But that macro was more dangerous than it is now.
I'm not sure if it will be replicated this time. The fact that semiconductors are not rising indicates at least one thing. The market does not believe that AI can push higher valuations, and funds are quietly changing tracks. Zhou has set the tone for this week: sector rotation, not a general rise.
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