SemiAnalysis: There is a lot of noise in the latest economic data of the United States, and AI infrastructure is still in full swing BlockBeats News, on June 29th, SemiAnalysis released a statement stating that there is a lot of noise in the latest economic data of the United States. The revision of Q1 GDP was mainly due to a decrease in imports. One third of the personal income growth in May came from one-time farm relief. The soaring PCE inflation was led by energy prices, and the significant decline in durable goods orders was due to the reversal of aircraft orders. These special factors will all return to the mean, and the overall economic outlook will change after stripping off. The inflation of goods caused by tariffs is a one-time price level shock that will exit the year-on-year data in about 12 months, but the actual purchasing power of consumers will permanently decrease and will not recover with the decline of inflation rate. The inflation of goods has now exceeded that of services, reflecting the transmission effect of tariffs. SemiAnalysis believes that despite macroeconomic data fluctuations, AI capital expenditures are a real and sustained trend, with equipment and software contributing 1.55 percentage points to Q1 GDP, four times the contribution of consumers, core capital goods orders growing by 1.6%, and AI data center construction rapidly expanding its share in the economy, without mean reversion. [Original link]