QCP: The US Iran situation repeatedly boosts risk aversion, and the volatility of the cryptocurrency market continues to rise According to TechFlow, on June 29th, QCP's latest report pointed out that the situation has not yet stabilized after the signing of the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran. Over the weekend, there were military frictions between the two sides, and they accused each other of violating the 60 day ceasefire agreement, casting a shadow over the prospects of subsequent negotiations this week. Although crude oil prices remain roughly at a low of $70 per barrel, indicating that the market still has cautious expectations for a easing of the situation, there is still an upward risk for oil prices if supply recovery falls short of expectations. In terms of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin and Ethereum are close to key support levels, and the market's demand for downside protection has increased, driving implied volatility to continue to rise, especially for put options on Bitcoin that expire in July at $55000 to $58000. At the same time, the outflow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETFs, concerns related to MicroStrategy, and pressure on the US stock market continue to suppress market sentiment. However, there have also been buy orders for Bitcoin's mid July $64000 call option in the market, indicating that some traders are beginning to lay out for a potential rebound. At the macro level, in early July, the market will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's speech at the European Central Bank forum, as well as the ISM manufacturing PMI and US non farm payroll data. Against the backdrop of weak liquidity and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty prior to the holiday, the market may maintain high volatility in the short term.