Commodities-to-Stocks Sock-Puppet Risks - The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index (BCOM) and S&P 500 Total Return Index (SPX) were both up about 20% year over year through June 26, which may signal what matters for commodities in 2H. The BCOM-to-SPX 60-day correlation fell to minus 0.55 in May, the most negative reading since 1990, while gold's positive correlation with SPX (0.77 through June 26) is the highest in our database since 1975. These extremes point to the potential for a significant move in 2H. My bias is that risks skew lower across the board, especially if beta follows Bitcoin, a leading indicator on the way up since 2009. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/thdyh8kgzaiz {BI COMD} #gold #commodities #stockmarket @Bloomberg(Mike McGlone)