PalBTC Market Weekly Report -6.29 Figure 1: Weekly chart 1) The weekly chart continues to create new lows here and closes below 595-60. From a weekly perspective, it is definitely still weak at the moment, with 49 BSLs waiting to be plundered below. 2) But after experiencing last week's plundering shock, I believe it will continue to fluctuate and wait for further events to unfold. And there are many nodes this week: For example, if the negotiations between the US and Iran continue on the 28th and 29th, there is a high probability that they will be successful, but there will definitely be fluctuations in rhetoric. Pay attention to the monthly and quarterly closing lines on the 1st. At 21:30, Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, and BOE President Bailey were on stage together. Note: Any statement by Warsh regarding "inflation resilience" or "the necessity of interest rate hikes" will be amplified by the market. 20: ADP employment in June 2015 in the United States -Expected+118K (previous value+120K, basically unchanged) -As a non farm forward indicator, exceeding expectations will price Thursday's non farm sentiment ahead of schedule June Non farm payroll report for the United States at 20:30 on the 2nd. Game point: Weaker than expected → Cooling of interest rate hike expectations → Positive news for risk assets; Stronger than expected → The probability of interest rate hikes in September has rebounded → The entire line is under pressure. The current market's bet on a September interest rate hike has cooled down due to the decline in oil prices, and non farm payroll is a secondary confirmation window. 3rd, Friday Independence Day holiday. 3) So, for now, let's focus on maintaining a 6W oscillation and then pay attention to the impact of the event. From a weekly perspective, in the long term, I think we can consider gradually investing in spot stocks. Mid term contracts are not suitable at the moment, there is no suitable opportunity for long or short positions. For short-term contracts, it depends on the opportunity for small-scale fluctuations. Figure 2: Daily chart 1) The daily chart is still showing a downward trend, but the consensus to buy will increase as the price drops. Coupled with the continuous liquidation of the contract for bulls, overall, this is the end of the mid-term decline that is increasing. As for where to fall in the long run, no one can be sure, after all, in order to harvest 5, buying consensus is stronger when the continuous decline starts at 4 or there is an uncertain black swan. Of course, the reversal of the market requires observing the continuous buying of ETFs. 2) My opinion is still that the longer the time here, the more favorable it is for bulls. The inertia of the Air Force and the accumulation of spot purchases will slowly push prices upwards, at least clearing the short positions above. 3) From the perspective of the K-line structure, the current resistance level is eq 632 and the key D bearish ob. If it breaks through D bearish ob 673, then we can see a reversal. Otherwise, the market will still only experience a range oscillation rebound. At present, the support below is still 58 and 54. Pay attention to the opportunity to rebound after looting downward, especially the opportunity to eat bloody Mantou after a large amount of warehouse explosion. Figure 3: Hour chart 1) At present, there are 62 above and 58 below waiting to be plundered, and they will definitely plunder, it just depends on whether to go up or down first. 2) After reaching a high point on Saturday, it is currently experiencing a volatile decline. The key here is 60520, breaking through the 62 here has a higher probability of plundering. Refusing here and falling below 595, the probability of going down 58 is higher.