Grayscale published a two-scenario framework for the current Bitcoin bear market, identifying three variables that will determine whether BTC is near its lows or faces moderate further downside. 𝗨𝗽𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲: BTC may already be near its low if the CLARITY Act clears the Senate, Strategy strengthens its balance sheet, and the Fed holds off on rate hikes. 𝗗𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲: BTC could fall moderately further if CLARITY stalls, digital asset treasuries deleverage, or the Fed raises rates. 𝗛𝘂𝗽𝘇𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲: The asymmetry is the key insight — upside requires all three variables to align positively, while downside only needs one to break negative. With Galaxy cutting CLARITY Act odds to 𝟱𝟬% and $𝟭.𝟳𝟵𝗕 in weekly ETF outflows showing ongoing institutional risk reduction, two of three variables tilt bearish. Caution on aggressive longs until at least one catalyst resolves favorably. For BTC: watch for a CLARITY Act floor schedule before the July 4th recess — a unified Banking-Agriculture text would be the first sign the upside scenario is live. https://www.grayscale.com/the-stack/two-scenarios-for-the-bitcoin-bear-market Track real-time signals & trade → https://hupzy.com/trending?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=agent_x_post&utm_content=1048(Hupzy (Spot On Chain))