BIS: AI may face four long-term development paths, with insufficient demand becoming a key limiting factor for growth On June 29th, according to the latest research released by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), AI is expected to break through the traditional mode of technological revolution that only improves labor productivity, and change the long-term economic growth path by enhancing knowledge creation capabilities. Research suggests that AI may evolve into four scenarios in the future, including maintaining the status quo, limited productivity growth, demand bottlenecks, and transformative AI. Among them, if AI can continuously improve its capabilities, economic growth rates and natural interest rates are expected to be significantly higher than historical levels. However, the development of AI may not necessarily accelerate indefinitely. As automation continues to replace labor, the proportion of labor income may decrease, making it difficult for consumer demand to match the expanding production capacity. If a company believes that there will be insufficient market demand in the future, it may reduce its sustained investment in AI innovation and automation, making technological progress constrained by demand rather than the technology itself. BIS believes that in this "demand bottleneck" scenario, insufficient terminal demand will become the main constraint on long-term economic growth, and the long-term impact of AI will still depend on multiple factors such as technological breakthroughs, income distribution, and demand evolution. [Original link]