Phyrex
Phyrex|6月 28, 2026 13:52
The semiconductor sector is heavily sucking blood from gold and Bitcoin Since 2026, the cumulative cash flow of US gold ETFs and Bitcoin spot ETFs has weakened overall, while the cumulative cash flow of US semiconductor ETFs has significantly strengthened. Let me share my personal opinion: The outflow of gold is more like a cooling effect after a long rise. Gold has been rising for a long time, driven by safe haven trading, central bank buying, concerns about US dollar credit, and geopolitical risks. After a significant increase, it is normal for ETF funds to make some profit taking and position adjustments. The long-term logic of gold has not disappeared, but the cost-effectiveness of continuing to pursue high prices in the short term has decreased. The outflow of Bitcoin is more like a stop loss and disappointment for ETF investors after losses. Bitcoin: Native spot ETFs bring a lot of funds and are not standard long-term holders or native cryptocurrency users. The logic behind buying BTC spot ETFs with these funds is very direct, and it is likely that they believe that the ETF will bring incremental funds after it is approved, and BTC will continue to rise. But the problem now is that many ETF investors have a poor holding experience. The volatility of BTC is greater than that of the US stock market, it is more aggressive when it falls, and it cannot outperform the AI concept when it rebounds. And for ETF investors, BTC has no financial report, no profit, and no next quarter guidance. What can support confidence in the short term is price performance and capital flow. If the price performance is not as expected and the cash flow does not continue to improve, the patience of this batch of funds will naturally decrease. 3. The core of semiconductor funding is still the strong AI line. Semiconductors themselves are the infrastructure of AI. Computing power, chips, storage, data centers, advanced processes, and semiconductor equipment can all be directly included in AI capital expenditures by the market. As long as the demand for AI remains, cloud vendors' capital expenditures remain, and chip companies' orders remain, the market will continue to give higher weight to semiconductors. Moreover, AI has a new defensive attribute for many funds. This defense is different from gold. Gold is a traditional safe haven, while AI is more like being in an uncertain market, where funds are willing to stay in the strongest, most performance validated, and most consensus driven mainline. Semiconductors have been rising for a longer period of time, with smoother logic and easier verification of financial reports. Funds naturally feel that this line is safer than many assets. So this round of funding changes, I prefer to understand it as three actions happening simultaneously. Gold is a profit taking and cooling trend after a long rise. At present, in the highly uncertain market of the Federal Reserve, it is evident that either more stable US bonds or more FOMO AI can be chosen. BTC, on the other hand, is more like a stop loss action for ETF investors after losing money. The transfer of funds from BTC to semiconductor based AI is very similar to the transition from altcoins to mainstream coins. Since the knockoff season has not arrived and the liquidity of altcoins is poor, it is better to directly go to mainstream coins. After the continued strengthening of the AI mainline, semiconductors have taken on the funds exchanged. As a strong demand sector for the hottest AI concept today, FOMO AI requires FOMO Semiconductor. This also explains why the cumulative capital flow of gold and BTC spot ETFs is flowing out, while the cumulative capital flow of semiconductor ETFs is strengthening. Bitget is here, VIP! Crypto、 US shares CFD, Global Advantage One Stop Layout
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