I’m not ready to jump into $BTC right now—not because $BTC hasn’t dropped enough, but because the Nasdaq isn’t weak enough yet. Looking at the chart, there are a few very obvious features. First, the Nasdaq hasn’t entered a downtrend at all. If you break down the price action since March, that dip in March looked more like a release of emotions. The market took less than two months to recover and returned to near historical highs. What does this tell us? It shows that capital is still there, risk appetite is still there, and the market is still willing to bet on the future. A true bear market doesn’t behave like this. In a real bear market, rebounds get weaker and weaker, but right now, the Nasdaq’s rebound is still strong. Second, the market’s core narrative hasn’t been disproven yet. What’s driven the Nasdaq’s rise over the past two years? It’s not the economy, not employment, and not even earnings—it’s three letters: AI. Even today, the market still believes AI can drive new growth, that the U.S. economy can achieve a soft landing, and that the Fed will eventually cut rates. In other words, the engine driving the Nasdaq’s rally is still running. And if the engine hasn’t stalled, then the risks haven’t been fully priced in. Third, and most importantly. $BTC has become increasingly institutionalized and financialized since the ETF narrative took hold, making it more influenced by macro liquidity. When the Nasdaq drops, $BTC usually drops even more. When the Nasdaq rises, $BTC doesn’t necessarily rise more. That’s the reality. So what makes me cautious right now is that the Nasdaq is still very close to its historical highs. If the Nasdaq had already dropped 30%, I’d actually be excited because the risks would have been priced in, valuations cleared out, and sentiment collapsed—that’s where opportunities are born. But right now? The market still believes in AI, still believes in a soft landing, still believes in the Fed. This shows that the market’s biggest consensus is still intact. Historically, major crashes don’t happen when bad news appears—they happen when the market starts doubting these consensuses. At the moment, the Nasdaq is still hovering near its highs, the AI narrative is still strong, and liquidity risks haven’t been fully released yet. I’d rather miss out on a rebound than bet prematurely on a bottom that hasn’t been cleared out yet. Because the real big opportunities never come when risks are just starting to be discussed—they come when risks have already been priced in by the market. And in my view, the Nasdaq is still some distance away from that stage.