看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|Jun 28, 2026 11:46
My lifelong investment plan of never selling: Duan Yongping once said a sentence that I have remembered for many years: "Investing is buying a company, buying a company is buying future cash flow. If you don't understand, don't do it. If you understand, you must dare to make heavy investments. My suggestion is very simple. The entire plan revolves around five objectives, covering technological growth, AI computing power, digital revolution, fiat currency hedging, and traditional hedging. Each target has a clear logic, and not a single one is just brainstorming. QQQM(Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF) This is the low-cost version of Nazhi 100, with a rate of 0.15%, which is more cost-effective than QQ's 0.20%. Positions include Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Google Meta、 Tesla, these global technology leaders. According to Yahoo Finance data (June 2026), the annualized earnings of the Nasdaq 100 over the past decade are approximately 18%. This is not luck, it is a systematic takeover of the economy by technology. In the 401k of the American middle class, QQQ or QQQM is standard. They don't need to 'study' because they know that as long as the US economy is still running, the profitability of these companies is likely to continue. Always remember: you don't need to choose the next Nvidia, you just need to buy all possible Nvidias. SMH(VanEck Semiconductor ETF) This is an ETF for the global semiconductor industry, with heavy holdings in TSMC, Nvidia, Broadcom, and ASML. The AI computing revolution is the core track of the next decade, and the underlying of computing power is chips. Without chips, ChatGPT cannot run, autonomous driving cannot run, and robots cannot run either. The fluctuation of SMH is greater than that of Nasdaq, but the long-term upward logic is also harder. Use it as a satellite position and bet on a high elasticity direction outside of the technology mainline. VGT(Vanguard Information Technology ETF) This is a technology sector ETF issued by Vanguard, with a fee rate of only 0.10%, which is the lowest in the entire market. The position covers the entire technology industry, broader than the Nasdaq 100, including software, hardware, and IT services. If QQQM is "buying the leader", VGT is "buying the entire industry". Pairing the two together provides both the certainty of a leading company and the breadth of the industry. BTC Digital gold, a hedging tool for the fiat currency system. How much money have global central banks printed in the past decade? The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has expanded from less than $1 trillion in 2008 to over $6 trillion in 2025. The purchasing power of the banknotes in your hand is diluted every year. BTC is not without fluctuations, it fluctuates greatly. But if we extend the time to ten years, it is likely to be one of the most effective tools for hedging against fiat currency depreciation. Gold (GLD or physical gold) This is the final bottom line. When all paper assets are in trouble, gold is still there. War, financial crisis, currency crisis, gold is the last consensus of humanity for thousands of years. According to general rules, gold is negatively or weakly correlated with technology stocks. Adding 10% -15% gold to the portfolio can significantly reduce the overall account drawdown. Configuration ratio and discipline The core positions of this combination should be allocated to QQQM and VGT, accounting for a total of 60%. SMH, as a high elasticity satellite position, accounts for 15%. BTC accounts for 10%. Gold accounts for 15%. Of course, the satellite position can be adjusted according to your risk tolerance ratio. The specific ratio can be adjusted according to age. Young people should be equipped with more technology; As you get older, get more gold. But there are a few rules that never change: Firstly, establish a bottom warehouse before making a final investment. Don't wait for a 'better time'. You can never wait. First, buy 30% -50% of the bottom position at once, and use fixed investment to smooth the remaining cost. Secondly, never completely clear the warehouse. Even if the market falls to the point of howling and howling, it is important to maintain the lowest position. Because you don't know when the rebound will come. Once the warehouse is cleared, you become a bystander from a participant, and getting on the bus requires a huge psychological cost. Thirdly, in the event of a significant drop, increase positions in batches. Withdraw 10% and add one more payment; Withdraw 20%, add one more payment; Withdraw 30% and add one more payment. Cash is your ammunition, keep it for now and use it in extreme situations. Fourthly, there is no profit taking policy, only discipline. Few middle-class retirement accounts in the United States are designed to take profits. Because they know that compound interest is most afraid of being interrupted. You ran away after earning 30% this year, and may miss out on 50% next year. Fifth, dynamic rebalancing. Check the proportion once a year or every six months. If technology rises too much or accounts for too much, sell a portion to make up for gold or BTC; If gold rises too much, make up for it with technology. Buy low and sell high, replace emotions with rules. Satellite space only. ---- Essentially, this plan is not betting on the rise of a certain target, but on several larger trends: The takeover of the economy by technology is still ongoing. AI is not a foam, but an infrastructure. The long-term depreciation of fiat currency is certain. The consensus among humans on safe haven assets will not disappear. You don't need to predict which year will rise or fall. You just need to stand on these trends and live long enough. Buffett once said that the most important thing in investing is not intelligence, but temperament. Can you not panic when the market crashes; Don't be greedy when the market is booming. Regular investment and discipline are used to solve the problem of temporation. It shifts investment decisions from being "emotion driven" to "rule driven". You don't need to make difficult decisions on every plunging night, because the rules have already been written. ---- In conclusion Many brothers ask me, how much can this plan earn? I don't know. No one knows. But I know that by following this discipline for more than ten years, it should be easy to defeat 90% of retail investors who frequently operate. Because those people are paying for their cognition every day. And you have turned cognition into rules. Always remember: the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. Your chips are not luck, they are discipline. Your moat is not information, it's time. I'm still asking if it's a good time now, so I probably haven't figured out this rule yet. People with initiative have already started this month.
Share To

HotFlash

APP

X

Telegram

Facebook

Reddit

CopyLink

Hot Reads