Is an MSTR value with mNAV less than 1 worth buying? Is the logic of buying Bitcoin at a discount valid? Recently, the mNAV of MSTR has dropped below 1, and many friends have started discussing whether buying MSTR now is equivalent to buying Bitcoin: native at a discount. Let me talk about my own viewpoint. First of all, this statement has some truth, but we cannot just look at the number mNAV, after all, the statistical method of "mNAV" may not be the same as imagined. In Strategy's own mNAV calculation. MSTR's ordinary stock market value is $29.54 billion, debt is $6.754 billion, preferred stock is $15.467 billion, and cash reserves are $1.4 billion, so the enterprise value is approximately $50.361 billion. The BTC reserve value held by MSTR is $50.993 billion, which is 0.99 when divided by the enterprise value and BTC reserve value. This represents the market pricing of the entire MSTR capital structure, which is already lower than the market value of BTC it holds. But this mNAV is easily misunderstood. This 0.99 is not about how much BTC ordinary shareholders can receive, nor is it about the liquidation value of ordinary shares. MSTR common stock ranks behind debt and preferred stock, and what truly belongs to common shareholders should be residual value. A closer algorithm would be: Remaining net value of common stock=BTC market value+cash+software business value+other assets - debt - preferred stock liquidation equity - accumulated unpaid dividends - other liabilities If only using the Strategy calculation method, excluding the software business value, accrued dividends, and other liabilities, the remaining amount is approximately 30.172 billion US dollars. The current ordinary stock market value of MSTR is 29.54 billion US dollars. The final result is a discount of approximately 632 million US dollars, with a discount rate of about 2.1%. So the logic of "buying Bitcoin at a discount" has a foundation, but the discount is not as big as many people imagine. A discount of around 2% is not very cheap for a structure like MSTR that carries debt, preferred stock, annualized dividends, future financing, and equity dilution risks. Moreover, the accrued dividends and other liabilities have not been deducted here, and the cost of future financing has not been included. The most critical issue with MSTR is that BTC itself does not have cash flow, but MSTR's capital structure requires cash flow. Debt has a maturity date, preferred stocks have dividends, US dollar reserves will be depleted, and common stock ATMs rely on market willingness to accept offers. As long as the BTC price rises, mNAV returns to above 1, the common stock financing window reopens, and preferred stock prices stabilize, the MSTR model can continue to operate. But if BTC continues to decline, mNAV remains below 1 for a long time, common stocks continue to be sluggish, and preferred stocks are also under pressure, the market will begin to reprice the credit risk of MSTR. So whether buying MSTR now is a good opportunity or not depends on what you really want to invest in? If you just want to buy BTC, buying BTC directly is simpler. If you buy MSTR, it is equivalent to buying leveraged BTC, which means you are prepared to go long in BTC and also believe that MSTR is currently undervalued relative to BTC. At this point, buying MSTR is equivalent to buying BTC at a discount. Although both are essentially long on Bitcoin, there is a slight difference in form. My current focus is to see what actions @ Taylor will take this week. If, as I expected, they start to curl up for the winter, buy a small amount of BTC through common stock ATMs, and hoard more cash, I will be prepared to buy some MSTR and STRC. Of course, it's just for me personally, this is not an investment advice. Bitget is here, VIP! Crypto、 US shares CFD， Global Advantage One Stop Layout