The 60-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran didn’t hold until the end. Today, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran issued a statement, announcing that its Navy and Air Force used missiles and drones to strike key U.S. military infrastructure at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, decisively responding to recent acts of aggression by the U.S. From the tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, to two consecutive days of U.S. airstrikes on Iran, and now Iran’s direct retaliation on U.S. bases in the Middle East, both sides have escalated from limited probing to outright military exchanges. More importantly, Iran is once again signaling the potential for tighter control over the Strait of Hormuz, which brings back uncertainty to global energy transportation. For the markets, this is no longer just geopolitical news—it’s a liquidity issue. If risks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate, oil prices, inflation expectations, and U.S. Treasury yields will all be affected again. In an already hawkish environment from the Fed, rate cut expectations will only be pushed further back, and the likelihood of another rate hike this year keeps increasing. Risk assets are about to face another macro stress test, and for $BTC, it’s adding insult to injury! This kind of environment is even tougher than a one-off bearish event. The real constraint on risk assets isn’t the war itself, but the high oil prices, high inflation, and persistently tight liquidity caused by the war. As long as this logic remains unchanged, the remaining liquidity is more likely to flow toward high-certainty AI sector leaders in U.S. equities rather than the crypto market.