律动BlockBeats
律动BlockBeats|Jun 28, 2026 00:49
**[Super Data Week Arrives: Non-Farm Payrolls Released Early on Thursday, U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates Again, Month-End Rebalancing Amplifies Volatility Risks]** BlockBeats reports that on June 28, the global market this week will face a highly complex situation with multiple overlapping factors: Super Data Week, early release of non-farm payrolls, month-end, quarter-end, and half-year-end institutional rebalancing, as well as the renewed escalation of U.S.-Iran conflict, potentially causing a sharp surge in market volatility. On the geopolitical front, tensions have not eased following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. On Saturday, U.S. forces launched a second round of airstrikes on Iranian targets, triggered by an Iranian drone sinking the Panama-flagged oil tanker "Kiku," which was carrying over 2 million barrels of crude oil. In response, Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched missile and drone counterattacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, warning that any violations of the agreement would lead to "devastating retaliation." Risks in the Strait of Hormuz are heating up again, putting upward pressure on oil prices, which had previously fallen to around $72. Commerzbank has warned that the market is overly optimistic about supply recovery, as crude oil inventories in Cushing have dropped below levels required for system stability. On the data front, due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday on July 4, this month's non-farm payroll report will be released early on Thursday (July 2). The market expects 130,000 new jobs to be added in June. This week’s data schedule is packed, including Tuesday's JOLTS job openings, Wednesday's ADP employment and ISM manufacturing PMI, and the Eurozone's June CPI preliminary reading. These multiple data points will alternately impact the market. Additionally, last week's May PCE data showed a year-on-year increase to 4.1%, the highest in nearly three years, further solidifying expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. In terms of asset performance, the S&P 500 index has risen over 7% cumulatively in the first half of the year, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has surged 85% from its March low. However, the Nasdaq fell more than 4% this week. Gold failed to hold above $4,100 amid strong U.S. data and inflationary pressures, but a Kitco survey shows both institutions and retail investors are predominantly bearish. JPMorgan raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7,200 points to 7,800 points this week, but multiple institutions have advised investors to remain cautious as they enter the second half of the year, waiting for volatility to create buying opportunities. [Original Link]
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