On Friday at the close, I noticed an interesting detail. SPY (Chart 1) suddenly had a sharp wick in the last minute, with the lowest point briefly hitting around 716. However, during the same time, the SPX index didn’t show the same low. Why did this happen? I think the most likely reason is quarter-end rebalancing. Many large institutions, pension funds, and index funds execute their rebalancing trades in the final minutes of the trading day, especially starting at 3:59 PM with orders placed, and completing them at 4:00 PM through the Closing Auction. ETFs are the most direct tools for executing these fund flows. Therefore, during quarter-end rebalancing, it’s more common to see SPY exhibit a noticeable wick in the last minute, while SPX doesn’t fully sync up. This is because SPY is a traded ETF that directly reflects large institutional buy/sell orders, MOC (Market-On-Close) orders, and market maker hedging, whereas SPX is just an index calculated from the 500 constituent stocks and doesn’t mirror the same large ETF transactions in the final minute. So, I wouldn’t interpret this wick as a true technical breakdown for now. I’m more inclined to believe it’s a temporary deviation caused by quarter-end rebalancing combined with closing liquidity. Also, I think this short-term correction is nearing its end. Here’s why: sentiment indicators are starting to hit extreme levels. First, the CNN Fear & Greed Index has dropped back to 25, entering the Extreme Fear zone again. Second, on Friday, June 26, the Put/Call Ratio peaked at 1.12. For comparison, during the market’s most fearful moment on March 30 this year, the Put/Call Ratio only reached a high of 1.07. In other words, investors’ sentiment to buy protective puts this time is even stronger than during the rapid correction in late March. Historically, when the market simultaneously shows Fear & Greed entering Extreme Fear and the Put/Call Ratio surging, it often means a significant portion of panic sentiment has already been released. Of course, this doesn’t mean the index will definitely rebound tomorrow, nor does it mean it won’t dip further. On Monday and Tuesday, as pension fund rebalancing hasn’t finished yet, I think there might be another dip before it stabilizes—S&P targeting 7290-7300, QQQ targeting 696-700 (Chart 2). But as the technical selling pressure from quarter-end rebalancing gradually eases and market sentiment reaches the Extreme Fear zone, I’ll be paying more attention to the risk-reward ratio. As long as the AI narrative hasn’t been disproven, I’ll stick to my plan and continue to gradually build positions in the AI infrastructure sector that I’m bullish on for the long term.