This bear market, a lot of people lost money not because they got the direction wrong. But because they mistook consolidation for a reversal, and rebounds for a bull market. The market’s favorite thing to do is give you hope when you’re about to despair, and then slap you down when you start to hope again. Many newcomers to the market think pros are good at predictions. But anyone who’s been through a few bull and bear cycles knows that the ones who truly make money aren’t the best predictors—they’re the ones who survive the longest. In 2018, some people thought bitcoin:native had bottomed at 6,000, but it dropped to 3,000. In 2022, some people thought LUNA wouldn’t go to zero, but it hit zero in three days. In 2025, some people might think ETFs getting approved means prices will only go up, but they’ll still crash hard enough to make you question life. That’s the biggest allure of cycles. They constantly reward those who respect the trend and eliminate those who believe in themselves too much. One of retail investors’ favorite lines: “I’ll hold on a bit longer and break even.” And then they go from a 10% unrealized loss to a 50% unrealized loss. That’s when they start researching “faith.” The most expensive thing in the market isn’t fees. It’s delusion. Truly mature traders all do the same things: Follow the trend when the market is rising. Control risk when the market is falling. Reduce positions when they don’t understand what’s happening. Because they know there’s always a next opportunity. But if your capital is gone, there’s no next time. Recently, after BTC dropped below 60k, market sentiment has clearly worsened. A lot of people are starting to doubt if the bull market is over. But in my opinion, whether it’s a bull or bear market doesn’t really matter. What matters is whether you have the ability to survive until the next real trend arrives. Cycles never disappear. The only thing that disappears is your account.