qinbafrank|6月 26, 2026 14:09
If you are confused about the recent decline in the US stock market, then last Sunday's tweet is worth taking a closer look. At that time, we talked about "weak high-level fluctuations, first put and withdraw, and look at the repair situation in early July". June 25-30 was the most vulnerable window, and now we see that the five main lines that affected the market discussed at that time have really unfolded in this order this week.
1. The market started to decline on Monday, but the AI mainline is still okay. Several investment banks raised their expectations for interest rate hikes during the two days of the re pricing of the Value Added Fund, and then the US dollar index broke through, putting pressure on the market.
2. Here on Tuesday: https://((x.com))/qinbank/status/2069387977751744556? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A
When it comes to the strong AI mainline, it is because of the rebalancing of pension funds, and the audit of the economic viability of AI tokens has not yet begun.
Then yesterday, on the 25th, when Micron's financial report exceeded expectations, the rebalancing of pension funds began. From last night to today, you can see many doubts about the economics and capital expenditures of AItoken (especially Apple's forced price increase, which has further exacerbated concerns about whether ASP can withstand the skyrocketing prices of upstream chip semiconductors).
3. Like last night's https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2070148249181462647? As discussed in s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A, PCE meets expectations, Micron's financial report greatly exceeds expectations, so the rebalancing of pension funds is a technical mechanical selling pressure.
4. Today's https://((x.com))/qinbufark/status/20703926448858200561? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A discloses the large model ARR estimated by yipitdata, with Authropic's ARR of $62 billion as of June 14th. In fact, the growth rate is still acceptable.
Patiently wait for the end of month sales pressure to pass, and take advantage of low prices to buy some goods.
Last night's tweet also talked about the points that need to be paid attention to next
1) Seasonal funding repair power in early July
2) The latest ARR data from authropic has been officially disclosed
3) June non farm and CPI data for early and mid July;
4) Of course, the most important thing is the boost and catalysis of the market by the new round of financial reporting season in mid to late July.
This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'
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