Today's market (1) The endless smashing of the plate has begun again Yesterday, I saw Coinbase shipping all day on TWAP, but today when I looked at the data, I realized that it spent nearly 700 million yuan in one day and 1.1 billion yuan in two days. (Figure 1) This kind of smashing (along with the long-term holders observed on the chain a few days ago also beginning to make profits and sell meat at the same time) usually ends with a large meat cut (the peak of losses already achieved on the chain) (Figure 2) Please refer to Figure 2 for the waves on November 21st, February 5th, and June 5th .. Figure 3 shows the specific values of several iterations in this round. At present, although the chain has been in a slow cutting state for the past few days (with a daily loss of about 1.3 billion yuan), there is still a gap between the daily loss of 3.1 billion yuan on November 21 and the 5.2 billion yuan on February 5. To put it simply, from today's perspective, the final short-term decline has not yet arrived. --------------------- The transitional stage of accelerating decline and finally releasing meat - consecutive days of low closing, sharp drops hitting new moon lows, and weak rebound are all evidence that the decline is still continuing. At the same time, there is also a signal on the chain that this wave of release is coming to an end. Currently, nearly half of the flowing BTC is experiencing a floating loss, reaching a historical extreme. These are readings that only appear in the bottom area of history. (Note that the bottom area is equal to the absolute low point at the bottom) From the past perspective, this stage is not expected to end quickly. From now on, it will grind to the "short-term final decline" - the previously mentioned peak of realized losses in large-scale meat cutting, which takes several days to one or two weeks to go. During this period, prices are prone to repeatedly bottoming out, sweeping up and down, washing away both those who are eager to leave and those who are eager to buy at the bottom, ultimately triggering a wave of large-scale meat cutting frenzy, and then gradually stabilizing. And everything that drives it is driven by internal selling pressure (such as the sell-off of long-term holders in the cryptocurrency circle that I wrote about a few days ago) and external factors, such as ETFs. As long as ETFs continue to pump, the bottom may continue to break, grinding the bottom to a lower level. So, this is a psychological expectation that needs to be prepared in the near future. -------------- As for which areas to focus on in the future, or where this wave of meat cutting will ultimately end up, you can refer to the cycle history model in Figure 4. Just look at the three wires below. I won't delve into the pricing magic of these three lines in detail. At present, these three lines converge in the range of 50~53k. The 55k seen by on chain analysts and other technical analysts during this period can basically resonate. -----------