[Citigroup: El Niño Phenomenon Poses Supply Chain Disruptions] According to a report by Golden Finance on June 26, Citigroup stated that the interim agreement between the United States and Iran has alleviated some of the major obstacles constraining the global economy. Nevertheless, it is still too early to declare that the challenges are behind us. The durability of the agreement remains to be seen, and the conflict has already caused damage to infrastructure in the Middle East. The good news is that the global economy has weathered a period of oil prices consistently above $100 per barrel. The bank estimates that the current global economic growth rate is approximately 2.5%, lower than the pre-conflict rate of 2.9%. At the same time, the global economy may be facing a new risk. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has determined that there is over a 95% probability that the El Niño phenomenon will persist until March 2027, with a 63% chance of reaching extreme or super-strong intensity by the end of this year. Historically, El Niño events of such severity have caused significant and long-term economic costs by disrupting agricultural output, energy production, supply chain logistics, and reducing labor productivity.