Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|6月 26, 2026 04:50
The South Korean stock market fell about 8% in overnight trading, triggering circuit breakers and also bringing down the night trading of the US stock market The final capitalization near QQQ 696-700 that I mentioned earlier may be getting closer and closer. There is no particularly obvious negative news this time. More importantly, the impact of end of season funds, including fund rebalancing, pension fund adjustments, and some deleveraging funds, has amplified market volatility. I still maintain my previous judgment: as we enter early July, this financial pressure is expected to significantly ease. At present, the CNN Fear&Greek Index has returned to 25 (Extreme Fear). If there is another wave of panic selling in the market tomorrow, I will pay attention to whether it will further return to around 20. If there really is a surge in panic and a sharp decline, it will actually be closer to the last drop I have been waiting for. I think there are many similarities between the current trend of QQ and the period from September 2025 to March 2026: high-level sideways movement, back and forth fluctuations, continuous creation of false breakthroughs and false falls (Figure 1). So my strategy is to buy at low prices within the box and sell at high prices. This is also consistent with my previous article's judgment on Q3 and Q4 of the US stock market (https://(x.com)/ArtofSpecuycky/status/2069291640876118446). I tend to believe that QQ will enter box consolidation from May and is likely to continue until around the midterm elections in mid October, with an overall operating range of approximately 695-750. After rebounding to the upper edge of the box in July, there will be a downward trend from August to October, followed by another rise in November and December. Below 695, there may also be several false dips, washing out the panic plate before quickly pulling back. There will be many opportunities for strong AI hardware stocks in between. The DRAM, MRVL, INTC, GLW, NOK, COHR, AMKR, and VRT that I gave priority to bottom fishing are likely to perform well, and the financial report should also be good. There are still many trading opportunities, such as going long one or two weeks before the financial reports of the 7 giants, which is likely to have good short covering and then running before the financial reports. The ones with high certainty are still those who sell shovels for money, and the reduction of capital expenditures is likely to happen before the end of next year. This year, the capital expenditures of the giants are basically certain at 725 billion yuan, and next year's forecast is 1 trillion yuan. After that, we don't know, so don't worry now. During this period, I anticipate that there may be several false breakthroughs around 745-760. Of course, this is just my own trading script and may not necessarily follow this path completely. It is more of a reference framework for everyone. Looking at the S&P 500 again, the one hour level is still in a downward trend. I am more concerned about whether the 7300-7310 area can complete testing again and form a reversal. 7300 is the most important put wall that I have emphasized in recent days. Therefore, the first hour after tomorrow's opening will be crucial to see if the market will experience a typical 'low opening, high rise'. There are only three trading days left in June, and I believe this is also the most intense period of the end of season capital game. In addition, I usually use Bitcoin as a leading indicator of risk appetite for the US stock market. Recently, Bitcoin has been repeatedly scanning for liquidity below. On June 5th, it fell below around 59100, and on June 24th, it quickly rebounded after hitting the long stop loss near 59000 again. If we take advantage of the emotional impact of the South Korean and US stock markets in early trading tomorrow and test the liquidity around 58000 again, I won't be surprised if there is a false drop and a quick recovery occurs. Of course, this is just one of my current ways of observing the market, and ultimately it depends on whether the actual trend of the market is validated.
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