Phyrex|6月 26, 2026 03:00
When mNAV is less than 1, does MSTR transform from a coin buying machine to a skilled trader?
The recent decline in Bitcoin: native has caused Strategy's boss Michael Saylor to stop talking, while the debate surrounding MSTR and STRC has become even more intense.
The focus of the past two days was on the dividend payment of STRC or whether STRC is the LUNA model. The popular science articles have already talked about it a lot, so I won't repeat it. What we need to talk about today is a new topic that has not been discussed by our friends for a long time, but has been extensively discussed in the past 24 hours regarding mNAV.
The reason is simple: the mNAV of MSTR was once almost 1, or even lower than 1. So what kind of chain reaction will this bring? Does MSTR need to sell Bitcoin back and forth?
Michael Saylor once publicly expressed the view that if MSTR's mNAV falls below 1 or even the stock price drops to $1, the company can issue preferred stocks or fixed income instruments such as STRK and STRF, and then use the raised money to repurchase MSTR's common stock.
When mNAV is less than 1, continuing to sell common stocks and buy BTC will dilute existing shareholders, but repurchasing common stocks can actually increase the BTC content per share and restore market confidence in MSTR's capital structure.
So according to Saylor's statement at the time, when mNAV is less than 1, MSTR's first choice is to regain mNAV through preferred stock, fixed income instruments, and repurchasing common stock.
Many friends may not believe it, or may not believe that Michael Saylor would do this, but in fact, there have been at least three time periods in history when the mNAV of MSTR was below 1.
The first paragraph is about the bear market in 2022:
At that time, the price of Bitcoin was as low as around $16000, and the stock price of MSTR was consistently lower than the holding value of BTC. MSTR's buying speed of BTC slowed down significantly, and they made a tax sale before quickly buying back more BTC.
In December 2022, Strategy first bought 2395 BTC, then sold 704 BTC for tax loss treatment, and bought back 810 BTC two days later. During the same period, it also sold stocks through ATM, raising a net fundraising of approximately $46.4 million.
The second paragraph is from November to December 2025:
That is to say, seven months ago, a script even more ruthless than today was staged, which is why I have been writing so many kopmans recently. It has only been a little over six months since then, and the mNAV was already less than 1. The market's doubts and FUD towards MSTR are very fierce.
On December 1, 2025, Strategy announced the establishment of a $1.44 billion USD Reserve to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest, and this reserve will come from common stock ATMs.
Michael Saylor vigorously turned to preferred stock tools at that time. When the issuance of common stocks becomes diluted, high-yield perpetual preferred stocks are issued to raise funds for buying BTC or managing common stocks.
The third paragraph is in February 2026:
The situation at that time was quite similar to now, with mNAV almost breaking 1, or temporarily already breaking 1. At this stage, Strategy did not directly repurchase common stocks, let alone sell BTC on a large scale.
But instead, continue to buy BTC on a small scale while leaving more money for cash reserves. It's very similar to last week's action. Last week, we sold 2.7 million shares of MSTR, raised $335.5 million, only bought 520 BTC for about $34.9 million, and added the remaining $300 million to our cash reserves.
In summary, Michael Saylor's three response plans were basically to slow down the scale of buying BTC, use more funds as cash reserves, and use common stock ATMs to protect dividends and debt interest first.
So even if MSTR's mNAV is indeed less than 1 this time, Michael Saylor's first reaction should be to reduce Bitcoin purchases, ensure sufficient cash reserves, ensure financing capabilities, and guarantee preferred stock credit, and then wait for BTC or MSTR stock prices to recover.
He also mentioned that preferred shares can be issued to repurchase common shares, but it depends on whether tools such as STRC, STRF, and STRK can still be used.
Therefore, even if we don't talk about 2022, there have been times in 2025 and 2026 when the mNAV of MSTR was less than 1, and both times STRC has indeed fallen quite badly, and the market is skeptical. However, MSTR has still come through like this, and Michael Saylor has not become a master of smashing the market!
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