Why is the market still dropping even though PCE met expectations? Tonight, the U.S. May PCE Price Index was just released, and it met market expectations. There’s no worse-than-expected scenario, and rate hike fears have temporarily cooled. But as mentioned in my tweets about the market trends in late June and early July, June 25–June 30 is the most vulnerable window, as this is when quarter-end rebalancing begins. In my opinion, today’s Micron earnings report significantly exceeded expectations, and PCE met expectations (in fact, the monthly PCE rate was even lower than expected and flat with the previous value), which actually boosted market confidence. So, the quarter-end rebalancing by pension funds is really just technical selling pressure—buying the dip shouldn’t be an issue. Overall, the scenario has shifted from the baseline projection to a more optimistic outlook. Next, we’ll need to watch: 1) The seasonal capital recovery force in early July 2) The latest ARR data from Anthropic, which is about to be disclosed 3) June’s non-farm payroll and CPI data in early and mid-July 4) And of course, the most important catalyst—the new earnings season in mid-to-late July, which could boost the market. This post is sponsored by @bitget_zh: “Bitget for U.S. stocks: Instant entry, seamless trading.”