《 Bitcoin market trend analysis and deduction, oscillation time and rebound height See the comparison chart of the core differences between Bitcoin breaking 60000 three times, as shown below Do the buyers of Duojun have enough time and funds to push up the price of Bitcoin? 1、 Who is buying? The buyer camp is shrinking! In the first two rebounds, the buyer camp included net inflows of ETFs, consecutive increases in Strategy holdings, whale hunting, and LTH fundraising. Four directions working together. What about this time? ETFs are still running at record levels. Strategy has stopped buying coins in the last week of March. The whale population is tearing apart - some are buying, some are selling. LTH is still attracting funds, but its power is dispersed and slow, not focused on pushing prices. The buyer's camp has shrunk from four sides to two and a half sides. With fewer troops, the walls to be pushed are actually higher (DXY 101.75 vs 100 at the time). Relying on longer accumulation time to gain higher space? Time can be changed, but the prerequisite is that the buyer has a continuous inflow of funds. ETFs are still flowing out every day, and the buyer base has shrunk from four sides to two and a half sides. With fewer troops, the city walls that need to be pushed are actually higher. Relying on longer accumulation time to gain higher space? Time can be changed, but the prerequisite is that the buyer has a continuous inflow of funds. The ETF is still flowing out every day, and the decrease in OI indicates that the bears are running but the bulls are not increasing either - the rebound is not pushed by the buyers, but by the sellers withdrawing. The rebound relies on the seller's retreat, not the buyer's attack. Retreat cannot be pushed far. 2、 OI and rates, how much fuel is left for rebound? This is the hardest data. OI decreased from 104609 to 99922, a decrease of 4687 BTC. The rate has been adjusted from -0.0071% to+0.0048%. The superposition of two signals indicates the same thing: short positions have been basically closed. Closing positions is the fuel for a rebound. The fuel is almost burned out now. What will happen next? Scenario 1: OI stabilizes at 99K-100K, with rates around zero - consolidation period. There are no new short positions coming in, nor are there any new long positions increasing. Price is sideways. This is' accumulating momentum '- but it is not accumulating momentum for upward attack, it is accumulating momentum for direction selection. Scenario 2: OI rises again+rates turn negative - new bears enter. Directly bearish, the rebound ends. Scenario 3: OI continues to decline+rates continue to rise - bearish stampede. This is the triggering condition for the yellow path, with a probability of 30%. The current data tends towards scenario 1. This means that a period of accumulation will occur, but accumulation does not mean a higher rebound. Is accumulating momentum waiting for new bears to gather or waiting for bulls to gather? That's the key. 3、 DXY index, the ceiling is rising! 101.75 is not a ceiling, it is a ceiling that is still rising. DXY climbed from 101.58 to 101.63 to 101.75, climbing 0.1-0.2 every day. There is an important detail: when it broke 60000 for the third time, DXY was 101.58. When it rebounds to 61000 now, DXY is 101.75. The floor is sinking and the ceiling is rising. The price needs to bounce up to 64000, which means it has to withstand the pressure of DXY 101.75, which is even higher than when DXY was 100 at that time. Is this possible? When the first rebound was 37.5%, DXY was 100, when the second rebound was 13.3%, DXY was just over 100, and the third rebound was DXY 101.75. Each rebound height corresponds to a rise of DXY. This is not a coincidence. For every 1 increase in DXY, the rebound space of risk assets is compressed. 4、 Prediction of oscillation momentum and rebound height. The accumulation time of subsequent oscillations may be longer, but the rebound high point is limited. OI has just dropped below 100000, and new bears will not come back immediately. The rate has just become positive, and long and short positions are being redrawn. This stage may last for several days. The rebound high point is limited! New bears are watching, DXY is climbing, ETFs are flowing out, and buyers are consuming. Time is not the friend of bulls, it is the supply line of bears. 62200 is in the gravitational range of 0.618-0.786, and short selling fuel is enough to push it to this point. 64200 is a 0.382 large cycle drawdown, which has exceeded the range of existing fuel - it must be driven by new buyer forces. I haven't seen this force yet. 5、 Comprehensive conclusion and probable trend prediction Reached a peak near 62200 → oscillated for several days in the range of 60000-62000 → new bears entered under the catalysis of DXY → third test at 60000 → fell below 55000.