Phyrex|Jun 25, 2026 12:33
The most important data recently is the core PCE, and we've already talked about its significance.
The data came out as expected. The annual rate of core PCE is 3.4%, slightly higher than the previous value but in line with market expectations. Although inflation has risen, this data reflects a period when the U.S.-Iran conflict was still unresolved, and inflation was pushed up by oil price fluctuations.
So personally, I think the 3.4% figure is acceptable. After all, back in May, the average WTI oil price was still above $90, and now? It's already dropped below $70. If my estimate is correct, June's CPI will start to decline, and by July and August, a downward trend in overall inflation is inevitable.
In this situation, let's not even talk about the Fed cutting rates—rate hikes are highly unlikely. Even though the market is still a bit uneasy, I believe that once the mid-July CPI data is released, investor sentiment will shift away from the rate hike narrative.
At least for me, this core PCE data isn't bearish. Now, it's all about watching how the market reacts.
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