BitUnix analyst: On the eve of PCE exam, global assets usher in a real pricing moment According to BlockBeats, on June 25th, the focus of the global market is no longer on whether the Middle East conflict will escalate, but on whether US inflation will once again become the core variable dominating asset prices as energy risks gradually cool down. With the continuous advancement of US Iran technical negotiations and the rapid recovery of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, market risk aversion has significantly cooled down. However, funds have not returned to a loose narrative, but have begun to reprice the higher cost of capital environment. At present, the market is highly focused on the upcoming release of PCE data for May. According to predictions from major Wall Street institutions, there is almost unanimous expectation that both overall PCE and core PCE will further increase compared to the previous month. What really worries the market is not energy prices, but the high stickiness of core inflation. If core prices continue to strengthen, it means that inflation has gradually shifted from geopolitical shocks to structural factors, and the pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates or even raise them again will increase simultaneously. Recently, there have been significant changes in market pricing. US Treasury Secretary Besson once again emphasized the dominance of the US dollar and publicly supported Walsh's policy thinking of downplaying forward guidance. This indicates that the Federal Reserve may further reduce policy predictability in the future and instead rely on data-driven decision-making, allowing the market to independently set interest rates. From the flattening of bond yield curves, the sustained strength of the US dollar, to the simultaneous decline of gold and silver, all indicate that funds are reassessing the risk of a higher interest rate environment possibly lasting longer. On the other hand, Micron's financial report has driven the global semiconductor sector to rise, and TSMC's advanced processes have reported a comprehensive price increase, reflecting that the AI infrastructure investment boom is still continuing. However, whether technology stocks and the AI industry chain can continue to absorb higher capital costs will become an important observation focus for the market in the second half of the year. The current market is not lacking in growth stories, but rather evaluating whether these growth stories are sufficient to counter higher discount rates. For the cryptocurrency market, the biggest short-term risks and opportunities come from PCE data itself. If inflation exceeds expectations again, the market's bet on interest rate hikes may further intensify, and the US dollar and short-term bond yields will attract capital inflows again; On the contrary, if inflationary pressures begin to ease, risk assets have the opportunity to breathe a sigh of relief. The focus of market trading in the coming days will not be on Middle Eastern issues, but on whether the Federal Reserve has a reason to pick up the tool of raising interest rates again. When the market starts trading policy risks instead of war risks, the sources of asset price volatility will also completely change.