Last night, bitcoin:native took a nosedive, but today it bounced back. A lot of people think: since it recovered, it shows that the $60K support is strong. But my understanding is the complete opposite. There's an old saying in the market: Any support, when repeatedly tested, becomes increasingly fragile. Because every drop, Consumes part of the buying power. And every rebound, Gives trapped positions above a chance to exit. The first test, Is to probe the buying interest. The second test, Is to deplete the buying interest. The third test, The market starts to doubt. The truly dangerous moment, Is not when the support breaks. But when everyone believes the support won't break. From a cyclical perspective, BTC is still in the bottom-building phase. On-chain tokens haven’t fully exchanged hands yet, Risk appetite in U.S. equities is still declining, And the Fed hasn’t truly entered a loosening cycle. If these conditions don’t change, Then every test of key support Will increase the probability of it failing. Price can deceive, but structure doesn’t.