Written before the release of the core PCE At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the release of the May core PCE data for the United States will be announced. This data is also the inflation data that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about. Previously, Powell had been talking about reducing inflation to 2%, which refers to the annual rate of core PCE. So the core PCE represents the most important parameter for the Federal Reserve to control interest rates. In the past 24 hours, there has been a significant decline, although it has been compounded by Micron's financial report hedging, but more importantly, it is based on the expectation of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the expectation of rising US inflation, and the core PCE data released today. Based on the data, the core PCE annual rate for last month was 3.3%, the market expectation was 3.4%, and the Cleveland Fed's forecast was 3.3%. Therefore, if the final data is released—— If it is less than or equal to 3.3%, it indicates that the core inflation in the United States has not continued to rise, which means that the Federal Reserve may not need a very aggressive interest rate hike strategy, especially since the war between the United States and Iran has ended and WTI prices are only $5 higher than before the war, the market will become more optimistic. If it is equal to 3.4%, although inflation has still risen, the magnitude of the increase is expected by the market, and the increase is not significant. Considering the end of the conflict between the United States and Iran and the decrease in WTI prices, the market may emerge from the strong pessimism of multiple interest rate hikes. If it is greater than 3.4%, it indicates that the rise in oil prices has spread to US inflation and exceeded market expectations. Even if the Federal Reserve does not intend to raise interest rates, the market will continue to scare itself, which is not good news for the current risk market. Simply put, if inflation is less than 3.4%, the market may turn optimistic; if it is 3.4%, pessimism may not amplify; and if inflation is greater than 3.4%, risk aversion in the market may continue to amplify. Bitget is here, VIP! Crypto、 US shares CFD， Global Advantage One Stop Layout