江卓尔_莱比特矿池|6月 24, 2026 18:44
Important Long Term Forecast Post
The mNAV (the ratio of stock price to BTC value per share) of MSTR has dropped to 0.72 [Figure 1],
Approaching the lowest point of 0.7 on May 11, 2022 in the previous bull market [Figure 2].
And based on recent market sentiment events such as the significant detachment of STRC,
It can be determined that the area currently has the lowest mNAV for this cycle.
However, please note that the lowest mNAV is not the lowest BTC price,
The last round of mNAV bottomed out on May 11, 2022 (BTC price $31017),
BTC hit bottom at $15476 on November 21, 2022,
There was a six-month interval in between.
According to the four-year cycle forecast,
This bear market will bottom at $44016 on October 31, 2026,
The yellow part in Figure 4 represents the predicted value of the mathematical model.
The principle of mathematical modeling is:
The ball bounces on the ground,
The amplitude of each bounce will gradually decrease.
As the total market value of BTC increases,
The principle of reducing volatility is similar to that of a ball.
The prediction accuracy of this model for time,
Greater than the prediction accuracy of the coin price,
Considering that mNAV's leading coin price has bottomed out in 6 months,
Therefore, it is predicted that the current BTC bear market will bottom out from October to December 2026,
The bottom price ranges from 42000 to 44000 yuan.
My recent short-term and medium-term operations have been selling spot goods and short selling,
(Transaction operation record: https://(x.com)/Jiangzhuoer2/status/206737022429020457)
I will start buying spot stocks and going long at that time:)
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