QCP Capital: Market Focus Shifts from US Iran Agreement Signing to Execution Risk, Fed Signals Longer Term Maintenance of High Interest Rates According to BlockBeats, on June 24th, QCP Capital released a daily observation stating that after the signing of the US Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), the market's focus has shifted from the agreement itself to execution level risks. Although Brent crude oil prices have fallen below $80, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has not fully resumed. Currently, the daily number of passing ships is only about 14, far below normal levels. The progress of technical negotiations and the implementation of the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel in the next 60 days will become key observation indicators. In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50% -3.75%, but the median of the 2026 interest rate chart has been raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, indicating a further strengthening of the "Higher for Longer" trend. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has raised its inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.7% to 3.6%, highlighting that inflation remains the core constraint of current policy. In the field of technology, SpaceX's stock price has fallen from its post IPO high of $211 to $155, a 27% drop from its peak, but still above its issue price of $135. QCP believes that the market narrative is shifting from the IPO boom to AI financing logic, and SpaceX is gradually becoming an important component of the AI capital formation cycle. In terms of the cryptocurrency market, Strategy continues to increase its holdings of Bitcoin, currently holding 847363 BTC, accounting for approximately 4% of the total Bitcoin supply, with an average holding cost of $75651. QCP pointed out that although Strategy's financing and increase mechanism is still in operation, the space for it to continue leveraging and increasing its holdings of Bitcoin in the future is narrowing against the backdrop of spot prices below holding costs and preferred stock prices falling below face value. [Original link]