Bitcoin: The true bottom of a native cycle cannot be solely determined by the candlestick. I am now more inclined towards a judgment: BTC has not yet fully seen the bottom of this round, but has entered the bottom construction zone in the later stage of the bear market. Why? Firstly, look at the funds on the chain. The current BTC price is around $62000, but short-term holders have achieved a price around $71000, indicating that the majority of those who have entered the market in recent months are in a state of floating losses. Short term chip losses are one of the necessary conditions for the formation of a bottom. But the problem is: We haven't seen a truly extreme on chain surrender yet. A true bottom usually requires further expansion of losses for short-term holders, with SOPR consistently below 1, and the market shifting from "wanting to buy the bottom" to "no one wants to see the market". Secondly, look at the US stock market. The US stock market is not a regular pullback, but rather the AI mainline is starting to loosen. On June 23, the Nasdaq fell 2.2%, the semiconductor index fell 7.9%, and chip stocks such as Micron, Qualcomm, and Marvel saw significant valuation losses, while Nvidia also fell. This indicates that the core narrative of risk assets is being re priced. As long as the AI foam in the US stock market is not completely released, BTC is difficult to reach the bottom independently. Thirdly, look at the Federal Reserve. In June, the FOMC continued to maintain interest rates at 3.50% -3.75%, and the dot plot shows that some officials even believe that interest rates may still be raised within the year. This means that we are not yet in an environment where liquidity is fully open. The true bottom of BTC's major cycle often occurs not after the start of interest rate cuts, but rather at: The market was first crushed by high interest rates, Risk assets have completed their final decline, Then the Federal Reserve was forced to turn around. Fourth, look at the BTC cycle. BTC has had a characteristic in the past few major dips: It's not about falling to a magical price and ending, but about the price returning to a position that long-term funds are willing to take on. The current long-term holder's realized price is around $49000, and the short-term holder's realized price is around $71000. This means: Above $70000, there is a short-term holding area; Near $50000 is the long-term capital cost area; The true bottom is likely to be completed between the two. So my overall judgment is: BTC is currently not in the middle of a bull market, but in the bottom construction stage from the late stage of a bear market to the start of a new cycle. Time window: July to November 2026. Core bottom observation area: 52000-58000 US dollars. Extreme panic pin area: 45000 to 50000 US dollars. If BTC falls to 52000-58000 and at the same time: Short term holders continue to incur losses; Stop bleeding after the outflow of ETF funds; The AI mainline of the US stock market has completed a round of valuation killing; The Federal Reserve shifts from hawkish to loose expectations; The market is beginning to generally doubt the end of BTC's current cycle; That area is most likely the bottom of the cycle that deserves heavy attention in this round. If there is an extreme black swan, such as a continued sharp decline in US stocks, a sudden tightening of US dollar liquidity, or concentrated redemptions of ETFs, then BTC cannot be ruled out from being injected into the range of 45000 to 50000. But I don't think that will be the beginning of a long-term bear market, more likely the last drop. The true bottom is not when everyone is shouting for a bargain. But rather: Release of losses on the chain, The macro pressure is cleared, The US stock market has sold out its valuation, The Federal Reserve is preparing to turn, The market sentiment has completely cooled down. The bottom is not a price. The bottom is a dual cleansing of faith and liquidity. My conclusion: 62000 is not absolutely cheap. 52000-58000 is the key observation area. 45000 to 50000 is a golden pit in extreme panic. The cruelest part of the late bear market is: It will make you think that the opportunity has come, Then use the last drop, Wash away the last batch of indecisive people.